A surge in operations in eastern and southeastern Ukraine in recent days seems to indicate that the opening phase of Ukraine’s expected counteroffensive against Russia is underway, but the main thrust has not yet begun, according to US officials.
A Western official told reporters Tuesday that Ukrainian forces are conducting operations around Bakhmut and south of the city of Donetsk, and that the activities south of Donetsk appear to be a new effort.
Ukraine has been silent about how its counteroffensive might begin. Over the weekend, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry released a video of soldiers holding their fingers to their lips in a “shh” gesture, accompanied by text that read, “Plans love silence. There will be no announcement of the start.”
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Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Hanna Malyar said Monday that defending Ukrainian territory includes conducting “counter-offensive measures”, but downplayed Russian claims that the broader counter-offensive has begun. Noting Ukrainian advances in villages near Bakhmut, she said Ukrainian forces now have the high ground near the symbolic city under control.
The US and its allies have spent months training Ukrainian forces in combined arms maneuvers for the counteroffensive. The training resulted in nine more Ukrainian armored and mechanized brigades currently in Ukraine and three more brigades currently being trained in Germany.
Videos on social media of activity in Ukraine do not appear to show Western equipment such as the Bradley or Stryker armored vehicles, which would likely be part of these US-trained brigades and could signal that the main thrust of the counteroffensive has begun.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters accompanying him over the weekend that there would be “stops and starts” in Ukraine’s counteroffensive, but the Ukrainians were well prepared.
The destruction of the Kakhova dam near Zaporizhia could hamper Ukraine’s counteroffensive, make bridging operations more difficult and result in the evacuation of thousands of residents in the flooded area.
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