After the end of the Wagner Group Uprising in Russia, President Vladimir Putin gave the militia fighters three options: go to Belarus, return home, or join the Russian armed forces.
But what exactly happened to the approximately 20,000 fighters led by Yevgeny Prigozhin “is completely unknown,” comments German expert Nico Lange.
He recalls that the group has infantry tanks and other more modern weapons than recently seen in Russian Armed Forces videos.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his commanders may be interested in these weapons, but their integration into the military could take time.
The power game between Putin, Prigozhin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who negotiated the deal that ended the uprising, is not over yet, analyzes the Institute for the Study of War in the US.
Institute researchers estimate that this power play will continue to have short and longterm consequences that could benefit Ukraine.
But how can Ukraine benefit from the current situation in Russia? And what were the options for the leadership of the Ukrainian armed forces after the uprising? So far it is not known whether the mutiny has changed the plans for the now ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Slow progress of the counteroffensive
Information from social media, satellite images and statements from Ukrainian forces indicate that Ukrainian fighters managed to liberate some villages along the battle line east of the city of Zaporizhia and north and south of Bakhmut.
But drone footage often emerges showing Ukrainian infantry tanks trapped in Russian minefields — the Russian defense line that has been sealed off with landmines and tank cordons for months.
“It is clear that the first obstacle is still being worked on: this combination of minefields and lack of air superiority, and that seems to be very problematic,” Lange commented on the progress made by the Ukrainian military.
Analyst Brady Africk of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington says using satellite imagery that Russia is strengthening its defenses.
Maps updated by Africk draw attention to June’s other major war event: the Kakhovka Dam explosion earlier in the month. Ukraine blames Russia for the blast, and Russia blames Ukraine.
According to research by the American newspaper The New York Times, the collapse of the dam was caused by an explosive detonated inside the structure by Russia, which controls the site.
bed dried out
The reservoir has since emptied. Photos shared on Telegram and Twitter show the dry bed in several parts. On Facebook, Ukrainian treasure hunters share their experiences of searching for valuables in the ground with metal detectors.
The old Kakhovka reservoir near the Ukrainian armycontrolled town of Nikopol in midJunePhoto: Dmytro Smolienko/Ukrinform/ABACAPRESS/picture Alliance
According to a press release, the German War Graves Commission is investigating reports that “remains of German soldiers have been found in southern Ukraine and these finds are linked to the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam”. The organization protects the remains of World War II victims across Europe and arranges for their burial in cemeteries.
Loophole for the Ukrainian army?
Old Wehrmacht maps show several historic roads leading across the back bed of the Kachowka Reservoir, which apparently once flowed water.
Former US Air Force meteorologist David Helms examined the condition of the old reservoir using satellite images and compared these old Wehrmacht maps. Helms is among a scattered group of Ukraine supporters who are posting their findings using the hashtag #NAFO, particularly on Twitter. He identified seven roads in the now largely empty reservoir that were still in use during World War II.
Currently, north of the former reservoir and the river Dnieper, which today flows in its historic bed, is the Ukrainian army, and south the Russian armed forces.
Surprisingly, few Russian army positions are visible west of the Russian armycontrolled town of Vasylivka, at least on US analyst Brady Africk’s map, supported by satellite imagery.
It seems at least possible that a breach for the Ukrainian army will open up here with many imponderables, especially since Russian armed forces can attack from the air at any time. However, the Ukrainian counteroffensive gave him the impression that Kiev is still keeping the big surprise to itself, says Lange.
Images from the war in Ukraine win the 2023 Pulitzer Prize
The award recognizes the AP news agency’s photojournalism work in reporting on the conflict. DW selected some of the awardwinning images.
Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP/Picture Alliance
attacks in residential areas
Natali Sevriukova stands next to her house, which was destroyed in an attack on the Ukrainian capital of Kiev on February 25, 2022, just as the war started by Russia.
Photo: Emilio Morenatti/AP/Picture Alliance
Ukrainians crowd under a destroyed bridge as they try to flee across the Irpin River outside Kiev March 5, 2022.
Photo: Emilio Morenatti/AP/dpa/picture Alliance
A woman walks between destroyed Russian tanks in Bucha on the outskirts of Kiev April 3, 2022.
Photo: Rodrigo Abd/AP Photo/Image Alliance
Nadiya Trubchaninova, 70, weeps over the coffin of her son Vadym, 48, who was killed by Russian soldiers in Bucha. The picture was taken during the funeral at Mykulychi Cemetery on the outskirts of Kiev on April 16, 2022.
Photo: Rodrigo Abd/AP Photo/Image Alliance
Scenes that went around the world
Ukrainian rescuers and police officers evacuate injured pregnant Iryna Kalinina, 32, from a maternity hospital destroyed by a Russian airstrike in Mariupol March 9, 2022.
Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP/dpa/picture Alliance
On March 11, 2022, an explosion erupts from a residential building in Mariupol, eastern Ukraine, which was bombed by a Russian army tank.
Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP/dpa/picture Alliance
Anastasia Ohrimenko, 26, is comforted by relatives and friends as she cries near the coffin containing the body of her husband, Yuri Styglyuk, during his funeral in Bucha August 31, 2022. Ukrainian soldier, died in combat in Maryinka, Donetsk region.
Photo: Emilio Morenatti/AP Photo/Picture Alliance
People lie on the floor of a hospital during shelling by Russian forces in Mariupol March 4, 2022.
Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo/Picture Alliance
destruction on all sides
A man looks at buildings destroyed in Russian attacks on Borodyanka on the outskirts of Kiev June 4, 2022.
Photo: Natacha Pisarenko/AP Photo/Picture Alliance