No sooner had we signed the annexation document for four Ukrainian regions than we learned that the city of Lyman was recaptured by Volodymyr Zelensky’s troops.
joy and optimism
After members of the Biden administration denounced the fraudulent nature of referendums leading up to the annexation, they have celebrated Ukraine’s recent victory. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin hailed a significant strategic win.
Why do the Americans and their allies unanimously welcome the Russians’ loss of Lyman? First, because it is timely and reflects the state of the forces present in that region. Mainly highways and railways converged there, so many relays being deprived of the Russians for the supply and deployment of troops.
Based on these recent advances, President Zelenskyy promised that we would soon see many Ukrainian flags flying in the Donbass and warned Russian soldiers that as long as Vladimir Putin led Russia, they would be killed one by one.
However, these celebrations and this harsh rhetoric should not make us forget that the aggressor is not at the end of his strength and has been waving the nuclear threat for some time.
A legitimate fear?
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, whose security forces are spreading terror everywhere, fired benevolent pikes at the Russian generals, of whom he is nonetheless an ally. Beyond these criticisms, he suggested resorting to drastic measures and pointed towards the use of low-power nuclear weapons.
Should we fear this option? Never since the end of the Cold War has the possibility of using nuclear weapons challenged me so much. The Russian President is no longer able to assert himself in the traditional way, and I would not be surprised if he resorts to extreme methods.
While the majority of experts seem to rule out full-scale nuclear war in the first place, other options are on the table before low-powered nuclear weapons are considered.
It cannot be ruled out that we will be able to attack civilian targets such as hospitals or schools. To these strikes, aimed at demoralizing the opponent, one could add the use of chemical weapons.
The next few days and weeks should allow us to answer at least two big questions.
First, we will know if the Russian president’s leadership is as precarious as some intelligence agencies suggest. Putin does not decide alone and we will soon know if he has a free hand.
The other big question is what the Americans and their allies will tolerate. Remember the Obama administration’s famous “red line” in Syria? Will we give Putin the same ultimatum as Assad? If the Russian President has his back against the wall, he has to stay there.