The war in Ukraine – now close to the end of four months – has presented us with some places whose presence and especially their structure influenced the course of the conflict: the Azovstal fortification complex in Mariupol, the Mega-Azot factory in Severodonetsk and Hostomel Airport gave the battle an unusual and unexpected turn.
However, there is one unusual element which, until at least mid-June, was unexpected only because it was not at the center of hostilities: we are talking about Donetsk, the capital of one of the recognized “People’s Republics”. Putin on February 21.
It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes’ intuition to realize that Donetsk is indeed on the line of friction between independent Ukraine and Moscow-controlled territory. Now look at the map (opening image).
You may have noticed that the east flank is a “belt of fire” from north to south, oddly less white-hot here. In fact, the following situation had arisen between the two sides: from April to June, Russia exerted maximum pressure first on Mariupol, and then increasingly around and now inside the de facto capital of the Luhansk region, Severodonetsk. Being attacked by the Russians on a very long front – over 1,100 kilometers – Ukrainians probably didn’t feel the need to “up the tension” in Donetsk, despite the city’s exceptional proximity to Kiev militants. To put it bluntly, we fight quite well here…but nothing like other places.
Then something changed… Over the past four days, a dozen powerful explosions have hit military bases and primarily weapons and ammunition depots in the Donetsk region. Among the targets hit by the Ukrainians, we highlight the ExpoDonbass congress and exhibition center, where in the past the Kiev press denounced a heavy concentration of vehicles and weapons.
The smoke columns from the suburbs to the city center can be seen in videos, of which we show you some snapshots here.
It goes without saying that the Russians lost tens, maybe hundreds, of tons of vehicles, weapons, and ammunition.
What has changed? Yes, European and American howitzers have certainly arrived, capable of striking up to 80 kilometers deep. Then a resistance network was activated, probably also linked to some anti-regime elements active inside the Russian Federation.
Finally, we think it likely that the Russians’ extraordinary efforts farther north in southern Donbass have created a veritable “soft underbelly” that Kremlin troops will need to move a few battalions south to cover – perhaps the ultimate goal of the Ukrainians, via beyond the enormous logistical damage?