- Ukraine’s counteroffensive has so far borne little fruit
- As winter approaches, the reality of a long war begins
- The soldiers at the front are exhausted but highly motivated
- Kiev says more support is needed from the West to take initiative
NEAR KREMINNA, Ukraine, Nov 3 (Portal) – Istoryk, a 26-year-old soldier in eastern Ukraine, was finally able to fall asleep one morning, exhausted from the relentless fighting against Russian forces in the pine forests near Kreminna.
His respite was cut short just an hour later when a new firefight broke out, forcing the senior combat medic back into action in a heated and protracted exchange.
“We had a firefight for over 20 hours,” said Istoryk, identified by his military call sign. “Continuous fighting, attacks, evacuations, and you know, I did it,” he told a Portal reporter who visited his position on Thursday.
“And we all did it. We are not completely fresh and now we have to find strength.”
His description of the recent clashes and the fatigue he and his unit are suffering underscore the enormous strain that the war, now in its 21st month, is placing on Ukraine’s limited resources and its troops.
The soldiers also know that Russia has a far larger army and more weapons and ammunition, raising the uncomfortable question of how Ukraine can ever repel the invaders once and for all in Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II.
Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhnyi described a “stalemate” on the battlefield in an interview published this week, adding that a protracted war of attrition would favor Russia and could threaten the state itself.
Only new capabilities, including more supplies from Western allies as well as locally produced drones, would tip the balance back in Kiev’s favor, Zaluzhnyi said.
The esteemed general’s harsh assessment coincides with the arrival of seasonal rains that make advancing over muddy ground difficult, and follows a summer counteroffensive that liberated far fewer areas than Kiev had hoped.
For those in the trenches, while exhaustion is inevitable, motivation remains strong.
Istoryk speaks with a broad Western Ukrainian accent and talks about his dark experiences with a winning smile.
When asked if he could fight for another year or even two, he replied: “I think so. In any case.”
Stalled offense
Istoryk serves in a rifle battalion of the 67th Mechanized Brigade in the Serebryanskyi Forest in the Luhansk Region. Most of the province is occupied by the Russians.
The ground around the road to the trenches is pockmarked with craters from incoming shells, and charred trees have been snapped in half by the explosions.
Fights of this kind are raging along front lines stretching from the border with Russia’s Belgorod region in the northeast to the Black Sea in the south.
Istoryk said Russia had suffered “huge” losses in the region; Five Ukrainian soldiers from an evacuation team were also recently killed by shelling nearby, he added.
[1/6]Military personnel of the 67th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine appear on a front line near Kreminna, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Luhansk region, Ukraine November 2, 2023. Portal/Alina Smutko ACQUIRE LICENSE
Portal could not independently verify its casualty figures, but tens of thousands of soldiers have died in combat over 20 months in a conflict that shows no signs of ending.
After focusing on defense earlier in the year, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in June to regain the initiative and disrupt Russia’s supply lines by pushing south toward the Sea of Azov.
Five months later, that goal remains a distant dream – Ukrainian forces are some 80 to 90 km from the coast and Russia’s extensive defenses have largely held up so far.
Even more dramatic progress is possible; Last year, Russian forces quickly withdrew from their positions in the Kherson region in early November. However, offensive operations could be hampered by muddy conditions.
“It’s one thing to walk 300 meters to an enemy position in June, and quite another to stand up to your knees in mud, wearing warm clothes, protective gear and a backpack with spare clothes,” said Col. Oleksandr Popov, a commander the Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade whose units also operate in the area, Portal said this week.
His brigade’s drone pilots appeared less tired than those of nearby infantry units.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the conflict had reached a “transitional phase” in which both sides had the initiative in different parts of the front.
“Overall, Ukraine’s offensive in the south has either reached its peak or is close to it,” he said.
artillery war
Along the front, which stretches nearly 1,000 km (620 miles), key battles are raging around the eastern towns of Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Kupiansk, while two main advances are taking place in the south – one near Orichiv and one south of Velyka Novosilka.
Artillery will remain a key weapon in winter, Popov said, adding that it is more effective when the targets are more static and bare trees provide little camouflage for troops on the ground, affecting both sides.
While the colonel noted a nearly three-fold decrease in the number of Russian artillery attacks in the Lyman sector of the front last month compared to October 2022, some experts said both sides had limited ammunition supplies.
“My feeling is that the artillery advantage that Ukraine had during much of its offensive will now decline and that Ukraine’s ammunition availability will be limited,” Kofman said.
“Russia will also be forced to conserve ammunition, but will now increasingly benefit from the influx of ammunition from North Korea.”
Away from the battlefield, Ukraine has sought to take out Russian air defenses, aircraft and naval installations with Western-supplied long-range missiles, hoping such attacks would make it harder for the enemy to support frontline troops.
Russia, meanwhile, has continued bombing Ukraine with drones and missiles in what it says is a targeted military campaign, but one that has killed thousands of civilians and crippled vital heating, electricity and transport infrastructure.
Back in the woods around Lyman, Zakhid, a 26-year-old officer, said the next phase of the war would be tough and a real test of character for the military.
“We are exhausted, they are exhausted. But there are more of them and they have more equipment.”
Additional reporting by Ivan Lyubysh-Kirdey; Writing by Mike Collett-White, Editing by Gareth Jones
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