In an interview, President Zelenskyy said that it would be better to advance politically on “Russia’s demilitarization in Crimea” than militarily. It is clear that a sustained Russian military presence on the peninsula would pose a threat to Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated he could envisage a negotiated Crimea settlement once Ukrainian troops liberate the mainland from the peninsula. “If we are on the administrative border with Crimea, I believe it will be possible to advance politically in Russia’s demilitarization on the peninsula,” he said in an interview with Ukrainian television.
Moderator Nataliya Moseychuk asked Zelenskyy in the interview why he said recently that he wasn’t sure “whether we should talk about the military disoccupation of Crimea.” Zelenskyy replied that there would be fewer casualties. “I think it would be better that way, especially for those who do [die Deokkupation] will be realized. Any war brings casualties.”
Crimea, occupied by Russia since 2014, is not just an occupied part of Ukraine’s own territory. It also poses a military threat. Under Russian-Ukrainian treaties, Russia was allowed to station up to 25,000 troops on the peninsula prior to annexation. The actual number of soldiers prior to 2014 was between 10,000 and 12,000. But after the illegal occupation of Crimea, the number of Russian soldiers tripled and the military infrastructure was greatly modernized. Finally, in February 2022, the peninsula was used as a staging area for the invasion of Kherson district in southern Ukraine.
a great base
Crimea is by far not only the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, but a single major military base, with numerous airfields and ammunition depots throughout the area. Well over 200 objects on the peninsula can be used militarily – an infrastructure that far surpasses that of the Russian regions bordering Ukraine. However, Crimea has a logistical problem: it is only connected to the south of mainland Ukraine by a few roads and only to Russia by the so-called Crimean Bridge, the prestigious project of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Both the Crimean approaches to the Kherson region and the 19-kilometre-long Crimean Bridge have been repeatedly fired upon by Ukraine. These attacks are likely to be a foretaste of the actual strategy that Kiev might employ towards Crimea: Ukraine is less concerned with a direct and likely very bloody ground operation on the peninsula. Instead, Ukraine will want to take full advantage of the peninsula’s logistical weaknesses. If the Ukrainian armed forces were to advance to the administrative border with Crimea in the course of their offensive actions and permanently destroy the bridges, the Russians would be almost in a blockade on the peninsula – and the Ukrainians could then also bomb the ferries running between the Russian mainland and the driving of Crimea.
Critical Voices in the Ukrainian Army
According to the “Washington Post”, similar strategies were discussed in June, during the visit of the head of the CIA, William Burns, to Kiev: the transfer of artillery and missile systems to the border with Crimea should, among other things, pave the way for serious negotiations with Moscow. “Russia would only negotiate if it felt a threat to Crimea,” the newspaper said, quoting a senior Ukrainian official. Ukrainian presidential cabinet adviser Mykhailo Podoliak expressly denied the Washington Post report. Even so, however, Zelenskyy told US broadcaster ABC News – without confirming the plans: “Most likely, Putin will be forced to seek dialogue with the civilized world if Ukraine reaches the administrative border with Crimea.”
However, there are also voices within the Ukrainian army that negotiations with Russia would still be unnecessary. Instead, Russia should be given an ultimatum to abandon the peninsula when it reaches the administrative border. If Moscow does not respond, Ukraine will begin large-scale destruction of Russian logistics, including the complete destruction of the Crimean Bridge.
A few days ago, a special unit hoisted the Ukrainian flag in Crimea
It is indisputable that one of the main strategic priorities of this war for Ukraine is that no Russian soldiers are stationed in Crimea and that no new attacks on southern Ukraine can be launched from the peninsula. For Putin, Crimea is mostly symbolic, but it also has personal significance: his 2014 annexation remains the crowning achievement of his presidency in the eyes of many Russians.
Ukraine has been attacking targets in Crimea for several weeks. In recent days, a Russian S-400 air defense system was destroyed. Furthermore, on August 24, Independence Day of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military intelligence service GRU allegedly carried out an amphibious landing operation in western Crimea and raised the Ukrainian flag there.