“Nobody ever said the counteroffensive would be easy. It was clearly stated that it would be bloody, difficult and tough. This is because the Russians prepared layered defense lines with trenches and obstacles for tanks, dragon’s teeth, and mines. An enormous amount of mines: never in history have we seen so many. But the Ukrainians have decided to launch a counteroffensive to liberate the territory, and they are making progress. Maybe not as many as we had hoped, but they are gradually covering hundreds of meters a day.
The words of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday before the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee “quantify” the Ukrainian counter-offensive while explaining the difficulties faced by Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s men, particularly on the Southern Front, pushing to open the land corridor between to break through Crimea and Russia. Breaking through to the coast would be a strategic victory of fundamental importance for the Ukrainians, but the task is made particularly complex by the three lines of defense established by General Surovikin.
According to American intelligence, the Allies initially underestimated these Russian fortifications. Now, Trent Maul, Defense Intelligence Agency’s director of analysis, told The Economist that the Ukrainians have crossed the front line — on which the army has invested around 60% of its resources, according to the generals in Kyiv — and are doing so now  “They’re targeting”. the second. In the last two lines, General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy told the Guardian the Russians only use 20% of it, but Maul claims that the bulk of the fortifications are on the third line.
This is also confirmed by American Enterprise Institute analyst Brady Africk, who has been mapping the defenses built by the Russians since the invasion began. He states that the army continues to reinforce them: in the summer they would have added obstacles and dragon’s teeth to make the counter-offensive more difficult, forcing them to look for openings in more exposed areas. The size of the minefields also slowed the advance, as Stoltenberg himself explains. The Kiev Army faced anti-tank and anti-personnel bombing, especially in the south, which were often difficult to detect and were at times turned into traps by shells hidden under the mines.
Ukraine does not have sufficient reclamation funds, also because these were destroyed by the invaders with artillery and helicopters when they deployed them. They have asked more of NATO, but the allies’ deposits are not plentiful, and there are the usual bureaucratic complications. Therefore, they were forced to rely on courageous pioneers who built “paths” and “corridors.” Clearing 150 meters of land can sometimes take up to four days, one of them recently told Le Monde.
According to American intelligence, the Ukrainians now have a 40/50 percent chance of breaching the remaining enemy bastions by the end of the year. However, the period of operations is coming to an end and experts are already looking ahead to the next “fighting season”. In this regard, former Australian General Mick Ryan highlighted the four variables to consider for spring 2024 resumption of operations:
• The strategic position of both sides upon the arrival of the mud, which could slow down operations, even if – as the Financial Times noted in recent days – the terrain on the southern front has a greater absorption capacity and does not turn into the terrible Rasputitsa that stagnates knocked down tanks and tanks;
• The willingness of the so-called “external supporters”, ie the allies, to maintain military, diplomatic, economic and humanitarian aid.