It may seem strange: the Portuguese government, which has an absolute majority in parliament, took office just over a year and a half ago. But new parliamentary elections will take place in Portugal on March 10, 2024. Have my compatriots gone crazy?
I do not think so. The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, had already warned: Victory in 2022 does not only lie with the Socialist Party. It was a highly personal victory in the form of António Costa. If he left the government, there would be elections.
Fact: Marcelo said what he said to curb Costa’s temptations to take a prominent position in the European Union. It wouldn’t be the first time: in 2004, thenPrime Minister José Manuel Durão Barroso did exactly that when he traveled to Brussels as President of the European Commission.
But what was true for high flights is also true for painful landings.
With the resignation of the Prime Minister, this landing has now been completed. In his farewell speech, Costa spoke about the suspicions that the public prosecutor’s office had against him. He explained that he had a clear conscience, but considered it incompatible with the exercise of his function.
The film is more complicated: even if Costa was not in the judicial spotlight, the truth is the arrest of the chief of staff, personal adviser and the ongoing investigations against ministers for alleged crimes of corruption, influence peddling and misconduct in companies involved in the exploration of lithium and hydrogen affiliate would be enough to make its position untenable.
Furthermore, the absolute majority began to bleed too soon as foreign ministers resigned due to legal problems. When the Prime Minister saw his house burning, he tirelessly repeated the mantra: “To justice belongs what belongs to justice, and to politics what belongs to politics.” An award that was very useful to the Socialist Party after the preventive arrest by José Sócrates, also a socialist prime minister, on suspicion of tax fraud, money laundering and corruption.
But at some point the distinction becomes a bad joke. And now?
Looking at the polls before the political crisis, the Socialist Party and the main opposition party, the centerright Social Democratic Party (PSD), appeared to be neck and neck in what was still a mystery: the scandals in the government and the unimaginable deterioration in António Costa’s government did not appear to penalize key areas such as health, education, housing or transport. The Portuguese seemed to have resigned themselves to an average government and found no suitable alternative in the PSD.
We must now wait to assess the extent of the damage to the Socialists, who will have to elect a new leadership for the election. One thing seems certain: the ultraright Chega party appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the crisis and could be crucial to the formation of an eventual rightwing government.
It comes from the books: When traditional parties cannot meet the political challenges of society, the extremes are grateful.