UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will embark on a difficult three-day trip to Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday, which has been criticized for the United Nations’ limited role in dealing with the crisis.
Three months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, UN agencies are struggling to reach besieged civilians in the east of the country, where humanitarian aid is sporadic.
Meanwhile, the UN Security Council, of which Russia is one of five permanent members with veto power, failed to pass a resolution condemning the war.
Guterres may want to use this trip to revitalize the UN initiative in the humanitarian field, experts said, while staying away from more controversial political issues.
“Guterres will seek to give new impetus to the United Nations to play a humanitarian access role in the evacuation of civilians, particularly from Mariupol, and in a broader context, to provide greater access to the United Nations and other humanitarian organizations.” to the conflict zones,” said Jean-Marc Rickli, head of the Global and Emerging Risks department at the Geneva Center for Security Policy.
Guterres will meet with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. But the Secretary-General’s decision to begin the first leg of his journey in the Kremlin has caused a stir in Ukraine.
“This journey started on the wrong foot from the start,” said Rickli. “In such a polarized environment, where disinformation is so facilitated by social media, anything Guterres does or says could be weaponized by one side or the other of the conflict.”
Last month, the UN refugee agency UNHCR came under fire from Ukrainian officials who accused it of being unprepared for the humanitarian crisis. Similarly, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has been criticized for its alleged inaction and visit to Russia. ICRC President Peter Maurer was in Moscow to negotiate access to the conflict zones.
In addition, the UN has been diplomatically sidelined in Turkey-led peace talks. Analysts said Guterres may wish to discuss the role the UN could play in future peace talks related to UN infrastructure and services, particularly in the event of a future deal that could involve peacekeeping forces. However, they agree that it is premature to talk about peace.
“We shouldn’t expect big breakthroughs from this meeting as the situation is not ripe for compromise,” said Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian Council for International Affairs.
UN weakness
Neither Russia nor Ukraine seem ready for serious negotiations.
Moscow has moved its forces to eastern Ukraine with the aim of conquering and likely annexing the Donbass region. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been heartened by the success of its resistance movement since the February 24 Russian invasion.
“Mr. Guterres is in a difficult position because neither country is willing to hold peace talks,” Rickli said.
Meanwhile, Putin wants to use his meeting with Guterres to present to the international community Russia’s narrative of the invasion of Ukraine, which it has described as a “special military operation.”
“He will probably repeat his standard narrative about the roots of the conflict and try to justify his decisions,” Kortunov said.
“He might also complain about what he sees as hypocrisy and double standards in the West.”
Putin and Guterres have very different worldviews and practice different leadership styles, Kortunov noted. Despite disagreements, Moscow has sanctioned Guterres’ election to the post and the two men are on good terms.
Last week, during the Orthodox Easter holiday, Guterres called for a ceasefire that, in coordination with the ICRC, would allow the safe passage of civilians from areas of current and anticipated confrontation. He also called on the parties to allow life-saving supplies to be delivered to people in the hardest-hit areas, such as the coastal city of Mariupol, which has been under siege for weeks. His appeals were ignored.
Experts said Guterres’ weakness reflected the limitations of the structure he advocates.
“In this environment, it is currently almost impossible for the UN to play a meaningful role in peacemaking. The weakness of the UN is the result of its structure itself, particularly the veto power of the permanent members of the UN Security Council, which paralyzes the organization due to the ongoing polarization between the West and the Russia-China axis,” Rickli said. Although China has called for peace talks, it has not condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
According to the United Nations, more than 12 million people in Ukraine are in need of humanitarian assistance, with more than a third in Mariupol, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk. The UN says that number will rise to 15.7 million, about 40 percent of all Ukrainians still in the country if the conflict continues.
Despite restrictions on the ground, the United Nations has provided assistance to around 2.5 million people over the past seven weeks, including many in the east.
According to UNHCR spokeswoman Shabia Mantoo, around 4.9 million refugees have fled Ukraine since February 24. about 132 tons, have reached their destinations in the east and north of the country.
Jakob Kern, the World Food Program’s emergency coordinator for Ukraine, said Mariupol would likely need about two to three trucks a day with food alone. Currently the agency can send in 10 trucks per month.