Status: 05/10/2022 06:56
What was considered almost impossible a few years ago is now considered possible by experts – they warn: global warming could cross the 1.5 degree mark for the first time by 2026.
United Nations climate experts expect a new record heat year by 2026. By then, the average global temperature for a year could be more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels for the first time. The probability that in the five-year period from 2022 to 2026 a temperature above 1.5 degrees will be reached for at least one year is almost 50%, the UN World Climate Organization (WMO) reported in Geneva.
However, this does not mean that the 1.5 degree mark will be permanently exceeded in this case. In the following years, the value may be lower again. On average, however, WMO experts expect temperatures to continue rising in the coming years.
“Non-random 1.5 degree limit”
In 2015 it was still considered practically impossible that the 1.5 degree mark could be reached in five years. At that time, the world community had agreed in the Paris climate agreement to limit permanent warming to well below two degrees and, if possible, below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas has warned that the 1.5-degree limit is not accidental. It marks “the point at which climate impacts become increasingly harmful to people and the entire planet”. Taalas repeated warnings of higher greenhouse gas emissions: the consequences are warmer and more acidic oceans, melting sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels and more extreme weather conditions.
Arctic warming is disproportionately high. “What happens in the Arctic affects us all,” said the head of the UN organization.
The hottest year in the world so far 2016
The Geneva report comes midway between the latest COP26 world climate conference in Glasgow and the upcoming COP27 conference in Egypt. About 30,000 participants, including 120 heads of state and government, are expected at the resort of Sharm el Sheikh in November.
Halfway through the COP, observers draw a serious conclusion about climate protection, also because of the war in Ukraine. Globally, the warmest year to date was 2016, when the average global temperature was about 1.2 degrees above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). The probability of this record being broken by 2026 is 93%, according to the WMO. It is equally likely that the average temperature in the five-year period 2022-2026 will be higher than in the previous five years.
It will also get wetter in some regions
The calculations were made by the British Meteorological Authority for the WMO. Last year, the global average temperature was 1.1 degrees above pre-industrial levels, according to the WMO’s preliminary climate report. WMO will publish the final figure on 18 May.
British meteorologists assume that the average temperature this and the next four years will be between 1.1 and 1.7 degrees above pre-industrial levels. For this year, meteorologists expect it to be drier in southwestern Europe and southwestern North America than the average for the years 1991 to 2020. In contrast, it is likely to be wetter in northern Europe, in the Sahel zone. , Northeast Brazil and Australia.
Leon Hermanson, head of analysis for the British Weather Service, emphasized that exceeding the 1.5 degree mark in a single year does not mean that the Paris Agreement limit has been breached. But it shows “that we are approaching a situation where 1.5 degrees can be exceeded for a longer period of time.”