Better understand the conflict between Venezuela and Guyana
The Venezuelan government will hold a referendum this Sunday (3) to allow the country’s population to decide whether they want the Essequibo territory, now located in Guyana, to be incorporated into Venezuela.
For more than a hundred years, Venezuela and Guyana have disputed the territory of Essequibo, an area larger than that of Greece and under Guyana’s control since the late 19th century. The region makes up 70% of Guyana’s current territory and is home to 125,000 people.
Both Guyana and Venezuela claim rights to the territory based on international documents.:
- A Guyana claims to be the owner of the territory, as there is a report drawn up in Paris in 1899 that established the current boundaries. At the time, Guyana was a territory of the United Kingdom.
- Already those Venezuela declares that the territory belongs to it because this is stipulated in an agreement signed with the United Kingdom itself in 1966, before Guyana’s independence, which annuls the arbitration award and creates the basis for a negotiated solution.
The two sentences are contradictory. According to Ronaldo Carmona, professor of geopolitics at Escola Superior de Guerra and senior researcher at the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri), the Essequibo problem is a remnant of the region’s history of colonialism.
The area of Essequibo (Guiana is called Essequiba in Venezuela) is densely forested and there has not been much economic interest in the area, but in 2015 oil was discovered in the region. It is estimated that Guyana has reserves of 11 billion barrels, most of which are located offshore near Essequibo. Due to oil, Guyana is the fastest growing South American country in recent years.
The Nicolás Maduro regime organized a referendum on relations between Venezuela and the Essequibo territory. The consultation scheduled for this Sunday (3) includes five questions. The last of them is the most important, it explicitly concerns the annexation of the territory by the Venezuelan state.
- Do you reject the current limit?
- Do you support the 1966 Geneva Convention?
- Do you agree with Venezuela’s position of not recognizing the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice (more on this topic below)?
- Do you disagree with Guyana using a maritime region over which there are no fixed borders?
- Are you okay with that? the creation of the state of Guyana Essequiba and with the creation of a care plan for the population of this territory, which includes the granting of Venezuelan citizenship, Inclusion of this state in the map of Venezuelan territory?
“This referendum has already been approved because Venezuelans will not vote against it. The question is whether or not the consequence will be measures to annex Essequibo,” says Carmona, professor of geopolitics at Escola Superior de Guerra.
Oil in the region has heightened the dispute as Venezuela argues Guyana is selling blocks it doesn’t own.
Finally, there is the political situation in Venezuela. After years of crisis, the country is hoping for economic improvement through the lifting of sanctions. One of the measures that the United States has taken to lift sanctions is to hold clean presidential elections in 2024. There is a preelection climate in Venezuela, and this issue has been a national issue in the country for centuries, it unites all selftaught Opposition does not dare to speak out against the Essequibo issue.
“Nicolás Maduro, the President of Venezuela, would not jeopardize the economic recovery that could be achieved with the end of sanctions against the oil industry, because a military campaign will not only lead to a confrontation with Guyana, but most likely a confrontation “with other extraregional powers, which could lead to the return of sanctions and destroy the possibility of economic recovery,” says Carmona.
Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali is planning to build military bases with foreign support. He recently traveled to the area with military personnel and hoped to host Department of Defense teams in the nation’s capital, Georgetown.
The Venezuelan Defense Minister, General Vladimir Padrino, criticized the President of Guyana: “With these ‘neighborhood bully’ styles and forms we will not solve this problem.” “The Southern Command (US Army) has decided to establish a base of operations in this area to build, with this arrogance (that is solved),” Padrino said.
Guyana asked the International Court of Justice for help
The International Court of Justice ruled on Friday that Venezuela could not try to annex Essequibo and that this applied to the referendum.
Guyana had asked the court to take emergency measures to stop voting in Venezuela.
In April, the International Court of Justice declared that it had the legitimacy to rule on the dispute. This body is the highest court of the United Nations (UN) to settle disputes between states, but is unable to enforce its decisions.
The final decision on who owns Essequiba could still be years away.
The Venezuelan government said the decision constituted interference in an internal matter and violated the constitution. Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez said that “nothing will prevent the referendum scheduled for December 3 from taking place.” She also said that despite her appearance in court, this does not mean that Venezuela recognizes the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice over the dispute.
1 of 2 Map shows Guyana and the Essequibo region Photo: Vitoria Coelho/g1 Map shows Guyana and the Essequibo region Photo: Vitoria Coelho/g1
The Brazilian government is following the situation with concern, said the Minister for Latin America and the Caribbean in Itamaraty, Ambassador Gisela Padovan. “We have been following closely and speaking at a very high level you will recall that Ambassador Celso Amorim traveled to Caracas to meet with the government and we are also in discussions with Guyana.”
Amorim traveled to Caracas a week ago at the request of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) after Brazil determined that the Venezuelan campaign to annex Essequibo had escalated too much, a source following the events told Portal.
The Brazilian government did not call for the cancellation of the Venezuelan referendum, but called on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to tone down the campaign and seek a peaceful solution. Lula also received a phone number from Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali, with whom he will also hold a bilateral meeting on Friday on the sidelines of COP28 in Dubai.
The prevailing view in the Brazilian government is that there will be no “disputes” in Venezuela, even though Maduro has threatened to invade Guyana’s territory on more than one occasion.
Last week, during a meeting of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) in Brasília, representatives of the two countries exchanged provocations and it took the intervention of other countries to prevent the discussion from escalating.
“Last week the two countries sat down… and I have to say there was energy, a little more elevated language on the part of Venezuela, but they sat at ACTO without any problems and cooperated without any problem on the Amazon issue,” the ambassador said .
The Brazilian government expects that “yes” to annexation will win the referendum, as it is one of the few issues that unites the government and opposition in Venezuela. However, it is unknown what Maduro intends to do with this outcome. General elections are scheduled to take place in Venezuela in 2024 and an action regarding Guyana could become an electoral weapon, a source said.
2 of 2 Venezuela has scheduled a referendum for December 3rd to determine the mechanisms it will use to defend its claim to Essequibo Photo: Portal Venezuela has scheduled a referendum for December 3rd to determine the mechanisms it will use to defend its claim to Essequibo will use it to defend its claim to Essequibo Photo: Portal