The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) is predicting an increase in displacement within Ukraine due to the ongoing Russian war of aggression, rather than a large influx of refugees into EU countries. “The most likely scenario is further displacement within Ukraine,” UNHCR chief Filippo Grandi said in an interview with SPIEGEL published on Sunday. “I hope there won’t be another big movement of refugees.”
At the same time, he qualified: “But war is unpredictable.” He worries that those who still manage to flee abroad are likely to need more support. “Those who stayed in Ukraine until now had fewer contacts in Europe or were less mobile,” Grandi told Der Spiegel.
He was confident that EU states could also take in additional refugees from Ukraine if needed. “Europe can withstand the challenge for a while longer,” he said. Looking ahead to winter, Grandi said: “Unlike spring, this time more public sector operated accommodation will be needed and funds will be needed for that.” Therefore, countries like Poland and the Czech Republic, which would have to shoulder a particularly heavy burden, should receive financial support, he demanded.
In view of the winter weather and continued Russian attacks on the country’s civilian infrastructure – especially electricity and heating facilities – it was repeatedly feared that many Ukrainians might flee to the EU. In this sense, the German ambassador in London, Miguel Berger, made a statement on Sunday. “We are very concerned about this because these attacks on energy infrastructure mean that many people could be forced to leave Ukraine in the freezing temperatures.” The diplomat also told British TV channel Sky News: “We expect a new wave of refugees in the coming weeks.”
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February led to the biggest displacement of people in decades, according to UNHCR. It was only in early November that Grandi said in New York that some 14 million people had been forced from their homes since the start of the war. According to UNHCR, nearly eight million have sought protection abroad.
UNHCR chief Grandi expressly praised “the current European policy on sustainable hospitality” towards Ukrainian refugees. They have direct access to social systems and are allowed to work. “For years, these approaches were considered bad or impractical. But in reality, they reduced the pressure on governments and societies because they created a certain mechanism of self-regulation,” said Grandi.