Published on: 05/20/2022 – 19:38
Joe Biden arrived in South Korea this Friday, May 20, aboard his Air Force One plane. This is his first trip to Asia as President of the United States. Faced with China, Joe Biden intends to reaffirm American ambitions in the region. But the shadow of a North Korean nuclear test hangs over this trip. Deciphering with Antoine Bondaz, Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research’s Korea Program.
RFI: According to Washington, North Korea could use this visit by Joe Biden to send a strong signal. Despite the Covid-19 wave in the country “ Preparations for a nuclear test are complete and [les Nord-Coréens] just looking for the right moment » To achieve it is appreciated in Seoul. Will dictator Kim Jong-un dare such a provocation?
Antoine Bondaz: It is quite conceivable that North Korea will try to send a strong message to the United States and provoke the Americans with the aim of picking up negotiations where they left off in 2019. You have to understand that North Korea has never halted its ballistic tests in three years, that it is multiplying its short-range ballistic tests and has also conducted a long-range missile test, the first since 2017.
Conducting a test at this point would then send an extremely strong message to the United States to say that not only is North Korea’s ballistics program continuing, but that Pyongyang is not in a weak position either. despite the Covid-19 wave the country is overwhelmed.
If that were to happen, how might the United States respond? ?
What is clear is that Washington would react just as decisively. Of course, this would initially be a diplomatic response with condemnation and possibly additional sanctions. But there will also be a military response, as any test during Joe Biden’s visit, or even outside of that visit, would result in the deployment of a portion of American forces to the region to demonstrate American determination to confront any threat a such a threat occurs.
Instead of going to the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas, upon arrival, President Biden began a visit to a giant Samsung semiconductor factory with his new South Korean counterpart, Yoon Suk-Yeol. South Korea accounts for around 70% of the global production of these components. Is this a big issue at a time when the supply chain is having hiccups?
It is indeed highly symbolic that President Joe Biden did not go to the Korean Demilitarized Zone where all other sitting American Presidents had gone. Biden visited this Samsung factory. The message is that the alliance with South Korea goes beyond the North Korean threat, it is part of defending shared values. But it is also a partnership on the issue of high technologies, at a time when the United States wants to form a kind of “Western camp” against Taiwan or even South Korea against China, including on technology.
What can South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol expect from this visit?
This visit is very good for the new South Korean President. First, he’s been in power for less than two weeks. Secondly, it is very symbolic that Joe Biden is going to Seoul first and only then to Tokyo. Yoon Suk-yeol’s goal is to show that under his mandate there will be rapprochement with the United States, against North Korea, but more generally against China. South Korea’s goal is to strengthen this alliance with the United States without seeking confrontation with China.
On Tuesday, May 24, the leaders of the United States, India, Japan and Australia will meet in Tokyo for a summit of the “Quad”, this forum for security dialogue. Will they show unity in the face of the war in Ukraine while India still refuses to condemn the Russian invasion?
Apparently, India’s ambiguous position on the war in Ukraine limits cooperation in this format. It is unlikely that there will be a joint statement by the Quad, which is extremely critical of Russia. Ukraine is being discussed, but we need to look closely at the linguistic elements in the joint statement.
This rapprochement between the countries that make up the Quad arose primarily out of a shared concern for China. Obviously, this partnership will be intensified and diversified. We have seen that since Joe Biden came to power, issues of infrastructure or vaccine production are now being dealt with at the quad level.
The other question that will arise during this meeting: will South Korea, seeking closeness with the United States, eventually join the Quad? More likely than membership is that she will work with the Quad on specific matters of common interest. We could then not speak of a “Quad +”, but of a “Quad X”, also open to other countries, including South Korea.