Updated 2022 Arnold Palmer Invites Odds and 7 picks for Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, More

PGA TOUR enters a fantastic two-week stretch at Bay Hill this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Four of the world’s top six golfers are on the field this week for one of the toughest challenges players will face in the TOUR. The thick bumps and nearly 7,500 yards that face the best in the world mean it will take incredible effort to get to the top.

We saw victory from long after long victory this year in TOUR and Honda Classic was no different with Sep Straka, who came out on top. There is a lot of depth in the world of golf right now, but the API usually sees one of the golfing elites prevailing.

Our GolfBet staff reviewed the odds board and determined their favorite picks for the week at Bay Hill. See them below.

Keith Mitchell – Top 10 (+350)

Jason Sobel: Although I realize that my weekly previews are getting dangerously close to looking like a Keith Mitchell fan page, there’s no reason to jump in now.

In five starts so far in 2022, Mitchell has four results of 12 or better, including last week’s T9 at Honda. He will now turn to API, where he completed T5 and T6 in three career starts. The truth is, I think his driving skills should help him more at Bay Hill than at PGA National, where he won his only PGA TOUR title three years ago, as the shots he gets should serve as more appropriate indicator this week. (Which says a lot, I understand, because Straka won while leading in this category.)

And just in case all this is not enough to convince you, let’s take into account the story of Mitchell, who remains after his last round on Sunday to congratulate his teammate from college for the victory. This should cost at least a few karma points.

Sungjae Im – Top 5 (+600)

Chris Murphy: Each of my results over the last few weeks has finished in the top five, so this week I will take a new approach and look to take advantage of this close, but not quite, result.

This week it’s with Sungjae Im, who I expect to recover quickly on Bay Hill after a disappointingly missed cut as a favorite in last week’s Honda Classic tournament. He was +1000 to win the event last week and now we get odds for him to be in the top five, albeit in a much stronger field, at +600.

The biggest problem for Im last week was Thursday, when he lost 2.6 strokes in the approach and another 2.9 strokes in one round. He bounced with irons on Friday, receiving a full blow on the field, but failed to make enough shots to get into the numbers to play over the weekend.

The South Korean is now heading to Arnold Palmer Invitational, another course that has suited his game over the past few years with three discounts and two top 3 spots in his last three trips to Bay Hill.

This course is well suited to his game, as it requires little staining and is also played on his preferred Bermuda surfaces. Everything is fine for Sungjae to have another solid week and a top finale in the API.

Victor Howland +1800

Matt Vincenzi: Howland comes this week with hot irons, which is the most important aspect of taming Bay Hill. In his last start on the Riviera, the 24-year-old received 6.1 strokes on approach. The performance lags only behind Tony Finau and the winner Joaquin Niemann in the category, leading Howland to fourth place.

Howland was also very good on the Riviera last season. He amassed 4.1 strokes in the approach (fifth place finish) and improved his hot form the following week. His next start came at the WGC Concession, where he finished second with 8.7 shots on approach, the best result of his career. Howland is heading to Florida again after a strong performance on the Riviera and I expect another performance on the ceiling.

The world’s No. 4 golfer recently won the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour (January 2022). Despite worldwide success, Hovland is still looking for a remarkable victory in the PGA TOUR. Bay Hill would be a logical place for that to happen.

Matt Fitzpatrick +3000

Derek Farnsworth: This is my first week as one of the best bets, so I could turn to the fences with a full bet. Fitzpatrick has never won a PGA TOUR, but has seven professional wins under his belt.

When trying to predict clear winners, many look to the latest form, many look to the history of the course, and many look to the course. Fitzpatrick has all three on his side this week. He finished T12 or better in each of his last four starts worldwide, including consecutive top 10 in his first two TOUR starts in 2022 (Pebble Beach T6 and Waste Management Open T10). He hit three consecutive top 10 on Bay Hill, including second place in 2019.

He has always said that he prefers difficult golf courses and those that challenge all aspects of your game. This definitely meets the requirements, as Bay Hill has been in the top 10 in terms of difficulty on tour in each of the last three years.

If Fitzpatrick can start a good start on Thursday and Friday, I like his chances of being in a dispute over the weekend. It is assumed that the wind will intensify on Saturday and Sunday, which should play in its strengths.

Jason Kokrak and Mark Lishman both finish in the top 30 (+310)

Rob Bolton: All right, FanDuel, I see you. You caught me. I join your conversation.

You will find this bet in Golf Specials 2. This is among a handful of tempting options that reflect a wider range than the same boards from the last two weeks at FanDuel.

Notwithstanding how Tori Pines rewards strength and precision, the same combination does damage to Bay Hill. These two are doing their job with this profile. In fact, both are in the top five of my Power Rankings at PGATOUR.com, so my expectations are for much more than fulfilling the conditions of this prop.

Kokrak has gone T10-T18-T8 here in the last three editions, respectively. He has six top 30 in his last eight trips, so even before rising to his current level on the world stage, he was a force in Bay Hill.

Leishman is a former champion (2017) who turned this title into five consecutive top-25s. He was a monster all season and we already know how reliable he is when the wind gets stronger, which will happen this week.

Will Zalatoris +2900

London Silinski: This may be a hot decision, but I personally believe that Zalatoris may be the third best iron player in the world after Colin Morikawa and Justin Thomas. The 25-year-old is ranked №1 in this area in SG: approach in his last 24 rounds and has two places in the top six in the last three starts.

We like to target Willy Z at non-birdie fest events, where his poor performance is less exaggerated. Fortunately, Bay Hill requires a precise iron game to fight, which is actually all we need to know. Zalatoris have actually been close to a neutral runner in their last 24 rounds, which is a scary thought for everyone else on the field this week, because if they win anything on the Greens, they are on the shortlist to win.

After T10 here last year on debut, I expect another huge week from this golf prodigy.

Hideki Matsuyama +2500

Brian Berryman: That number stood out the first time I went through the odds early Monday morning, and it was my first click of the week.

Bay Hill is a challenging golf course that will require a full comprehensive game to win. In the last 24 rounds, Hideki ranks sixth in this field in Strikes Received: Tee-to-Green and first in Wins Won: Total. He even got hit in his last four starts, a great indicator that every aspect of his game is snapping.

This hot stretch of play led to two wins and an additional final in the top 10 in his last six starts. He has never missed a cut in this event in seven attempts and is in great shape this week. Many signs point to Hideki this week.