The Detroit Lions still have a chance at the NFC top seed thanks to their loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. Here's an updated look at the NFL playoff picture.
It was quite a holiday weekend for the Detroit Lions. On Sunday they won their first league title in 30 years with a win over the Minnesota Vikings. And at the end of Christmas Day, the path suddenly opened up for them to potentially secure the top spot in the conference standings. Thanks to a win by the Baltimore Ravens against the San Francisco 49ers, there are suddenly three teams – including the Lions – that have the best record in the conference (11-4) after 15 games.
Now that all the Week 16 results are in, let's take a closer look at the NFC playoff picture.
NFC playoff picture (through Week 16)
x = won the division
y = secured a spot in the playoffs
Head of department:
Wildcard races (top three advance)
Due to their impressive conference record (9-1), the 49ers are currently in a tiebreaker ahead of the Eagles and Lions. Both Philly and Detroit are 7-3 in the conference. The two teams can only make up this difference if they finish with a better record than the 49ers.
Philly is temporarily ahead based on the strength of the win – the fourth tiebreaker. But that's essentially irrelevant since the other tiebreakers will shift depending on the final two weeks.
So what needs to happen for the Lions to finish at No. 1? Two things:
- Lions win (at Cowboys vs. Vikings)
- 49ers lose or draw another game (at Commanders vs. Rams)
If the Lions win, it doesn't matter what the Eagles do in their final two games, because Detroit would have the tiebreaker over Philly based on their record in combined games (thanks to a theoretical win over the Cowboys).
Could the 49ers go 1-1 in their last two games? A loss to the 4-11 Commanders looks unlikely next week. Washington has lost six straight and eight of its last nine games. But this finale against a Los Angeles Rams team that will likely be fighting for its playoff life? This could easily be a loss. And what better way for the Lions to secure the No. 1 spot than to get a little help from Matthew Stafford?
Of course, for this to happen, the Lions will have to get some big wins of their own. Detroit is almost a touchdown underdog to the Cowboys this week, so this won't be an easy task. But if they manage to cause a stir, be careful.
The Lions' current chances of reaching number 1 (according to NYT): 4%
The odds for the No. 1 seed Lions to beat Dallas this week: 17%
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