Having scrapped the idea of occupying the entire country in a short period of time, Russia must focus on one goal at a time. And now the priority is the Donbass. He’s just buying himself time to regroup the army and focus on eastern Ukraine. And it justifies these moves under the pretext of negotiations. The analysis comes from Tatyana Stanovaja, Director of the Center for Political Studies «R. Politics », in an interview with Repubblica. Stanovaya argues that “Putin will lose social support if he loses the war, not if he keeps fighting. Today, after the first rumors about the negotiations, social networks were flooded with posts comparing the possible initialling of the Ukrainian proposal with the Khazavyurt agreements signed after the first Chechen war. They were the biggest failure of the Yeltsin era. Putin raised expectations by calling the operation a “fight against Nazism.” Can’t afford ‘Khasavyurt 2’. For the most radical and patriotic part of society it would be a betrayal».
But how does the progress of the operation affect the balance in the circle of “siloviki”, the security forces? «Within the elite and the leadership explains Stanovaya there is resentment towards the General Staff: the operation did not proceed as quickly as expected and causes casualties. We can imagine power struggles between the ‘siloviki’: the FSB against the defence, the defense against the FSB. But I don’t think Putin is willing to admit that his initial strategy and goals were wrong. He is unwilling to punish the real perpetrators of the operations because he sees it as undermining the pillars of his own regime. Nor can he make enemies in the army or the services, he has to deal with them because he needs them. At least for now.”
Another question that arises spontaneously is whether there is resentment towards Putin. Stanovaya replies: «A significant part of the elite was shocked by the offensive. She was uninformed and unprepared. But the dissent did not result in action. The resistance is silent. While many disagree with Putin, they tend to justify him and blame the West for not understanding Russian concerns. Putin’s supporters will not rebel against him. But on the periphery of the elite, people like Deripaska, Fridman, Dvorkovich have spoken out against the war. The problem is that they have no power over Putin. For an antiwar movement to emerge, the regime must appear vulnerable. And we’re not there yet ».
