The Biden administration urged Ukrainian officials not to carry out covert attacks inside Russia while the Wagner group insurgency was underway and advised them not to do anything that could influence the outcome of events or take advantage of the chaos, American officials said .
At the time of the American operation in Ukraine, U.S. officials didn’t know exactly what Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s boss, was planning, according to U.S. officials briefed on the intelligence agency, but they did know that Mr. Prigozhin wanted to take military action to force Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff General Valery V. Gerasimov from power.
They didn’t know how he planned it or what he planned to do to them, said the officials, who spoke about sensitive intelligence information on condition of anonymity. The action, which CNN previously reported, took place shortly after Mr Prigozhin’s rebellion began, officials said.
In urging Kiev to exercise caution, US officials wanted to give President Vladimir V. Putin no excuse to claim that Mr. Prigozhin’s rebellion was orchestrated by the United States or Ukraine. They also said they were convinced that a high-profile operation by Ukrainian forces inside Russia is unlikely to have a major impact on Mr. Prigozhin’s goals, but would allow Mr. Putin to level allegations against the West, according to American estimates.
American officials specifically told Ukrainian officials that it was not the time to conduct cross-border attacks, covert sabotage missions, or engage in any gambling maneuvers that Kiev might think might give them an advantage in the war. US officials said that Ukrainian intelligence complied with what they knew.
The caution appears to have worked in part, as Russian officials in recent days began signaling that they did not believe the West was behind the uprising and urging their embassies not to comment publicly.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday Moscow had gathered information it believed showed the United States had ordered Kiev not to take advantage of the insurgency.
“Instructions were sent to Kiev so that Ukrainians would not use this situation to organize sabotage on Russian territory and other provocations in the near future,” Lavrov told Russian television. “I can’t guarantee it 100%, but this is reliable information that appears to be true.”
Mr Lavrov’s comments suggest that the Kremlin, for once, does not see the West as the main culprit in the rebellion – in contrast to the attacks inside Russia, which are believed to have been perpetrated by Ukraine, for which the Kremlin often blames the West blames. The Kremlin seems intent, at least for now, on pinning the blame primarily on Mr. Prigozhin.
The United States believes that most of the high-profile assassinations, sabotage, and drone strikes in Russia are the work of Ukrainian agents or sympathizers, acting to some extent at the direction of elements of the Ukrainian government or intelligence agencies. But in many cases, the United States is not sure exactly who authorized the various operations in Ukraine.
Washington and Kiev disagreed over Ukraine’s covert program of action and the effectiveness of operations inside Russia. Senior American officials have regularly warned Ukrainians about their cross-border and covert operations inside Russia, repeatedly telling them not to use American equipment in these operations.
Some Ukrainian officials believe the covert attacks are important because they show Mr Putin is not untouchable and that his control of the state is not as strong as he claims.
The United States’ caution was based largely on uncertainty about how events would unfold. The intelligence information that US spy agencies developed in the days before the rebellion began did not include Mr Prigozhin’s plans to take the city of Rostov and then march on Moscow, officials said.
Some US officials believe Mr Prigozhin improvised much of his plan as he marched towards Moscow. That could explain the unclear information about what the end result of his rebellion should be, officials said.
American officials feared a much bloodier outcome of likely clashes between Wagner troops advancing north toward Moscow and Russian security personnel along the way, a senior US military official said.
But for reasons that are still not entirely clear, Russian ground units, including the Russian National Guard, did not fire on Mr Prigozhin’s advancing column, US officials said. The Russian Air Force attacked the rebels but suffered heavy casualties: at least six attack helicopters and Il-22 airborne command planes were shot down.
American officials said they believed Mr Prigozhin was counting on the support of at least some Russian commanders or security services. When that support was not publicly expressed and the Kremlin rushed to defend Moscow and mobilized thousands of security forces, Mr Prigozhin apparently began to consider whether to continue.
At that point, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko intervened with a plan to defuse the crisis, giving Mr Prigozhin a face-saving way out, US officials said.