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(CNN) — The United States and its allies have been examining how western Ukraine could offer alternative security guarantees if it abandons its bid to join NATO as a concession to Russia to end the war, multiple sources familiar with the matter told CNN the case with .
The talks, in which the Ukrainians were also directly involved, are still at a very early stage. This is because US, Western and Ukrainian officials are unaware that the Russian negotiations are more than a smoke screen.
However, they stressed that it was unlikely that the United States and its allies would ultimately offer Ukraine the kind of legally binding protection it is asking for.
At peace talks with Russia this week in Istanbul, Ukrainian negotiators hinted that their government might be ready to commit to neutrality on NATO. But at the same time, they want Western countries, including the United States and Britain, to guarantee with ratified treaties that they would protect Ukraine should Russia attack them again in the future.
Such an agreement would reflect Article V of NATO, which states that an attack on one member of the alliance is an attack on all members. A key driver behind the invasion of Russia was the desire to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. And it’s not clear whether another collective security agreement would be more acceptable to Moscow.
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To save face for Russia in the negotiations, the Ukrainians suggested that such security guarantees would not apply to breakaway territories in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine.
“We insist that this must be an agreement on security guarantees that they (the parliaments) will sign and ratify to avoid repeating the mistake of the Budapest Memorandum,” said Ukrainian MP David Arakhamia, the country’s chief negotiator in talks this week.
This memorandum is an agreement signed in 1994 between the United States, Britain and Russia that forced Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for protecting the signatories. Ukrainian officials have called the deal pointless and even harmful: the security commitments were not legally binding, and many of those nuclear weapons were supplied to Russia under the deal to bolster its arsenal.
Security guarantees for Ukraine
A Western official told CNN that “less than a full commitment to Ukraine’s defense will not do for Ukrainians.” And some Biden administration officials concede that another Budapest Memorandum-type deal would not help.
Several US and Western officials are skeptical about possible security guarantees. Many point out that it is still premature to discuss contingencies while negotiations are progressing. Some US officials were surprised by Ukraine’s statement after the Istanbul talks that Western security guarantees could be on the table.
“We are in constant discussion with Ukrainians about how we can help ensure they are sovereign and safe,” Kate Bedingfield, White House communications director, said this week. “But there is nothing specific about security guarantees that I can speak about at this time.”
Other European officials said they expected to hear more from the Ukrainians before making a public commitment. And a US official said talks with Ukraine over how a security deal might be framed are still at an early stage.
However, a compromise under Article V is unlikely. The reason? The United States and many of its allies, including Britain, are not yet ready to bring their troops into direct confrontation with Russian forces. The theory that Russia would not attack Ukraine if it had Western security guarantees seems like a bigger risk than the United States and its allies are willing to take.
“Ukraine is not a member of NATO,” British Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab told the BBC on Wednesday when asked if Britain was ready to become the guarantor of Ukraine’s independence.
“We will not engage Russia in a direct military confrontation,” he said.
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Ukraine’s membership of the European Union is being discussed as a solution
Several European countries including Poland, Latvia, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic have been pushing for Ukraine to join the European Union. And in that sense, they believe membership could offer some level of protection to the country.
“It would be difficult for Russia to attack a member country of the European Union,” said a European official. “Because that could automatically mean a lot more support for this country.”
But even MPs in Ukraine’s parliament, who are firmly in favor of joining the EU, say that membership in the bloc would not be enough to guarantee their security.
Ukrainian MP Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, chair of the parliamentary committee on Ukraine’s integration into the European Union, said on Wednesday that she had been a committed Euro-Atlanticist throughout her professional life, “I don’t think the EU has this protective shield.” is for (Ukraine) as military as NATO could be”.
Meanwhile, NATO member countries within the alliance have not yet had solid discussions on Ukraine’s security proposal, the EU official said, because they still do not trust the Russians to negotiate in good faith with Ukraine. And that any potential deal backed by Western security commitments could quickly change.
Russia must first show it is serious about the withdrawal, commit to allowing Ukraine to maintain a robust military and essentially refrain from calls for Ukraine to be “demilitarized,” the official said. Above all, he added, Ukraine must first win the war and get the support it needs.
Anastastia Radina, another Ukrainian MP, said her country was looking for “viable security guarantees and not just another Budapest memorandum”.
“I would like to remind you that according to the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine destroyed part of our nuclear arsenal. But a large part went to Russia,” said Radina. “Where did that take us? Now hearing that the world can’t do anything about Russia because it has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. But they pushed us to contribute to that arsenal,” he added.
Playing the European official, Radina said the bottom line was that “before proper talks on security guarantees can take place, we need to make sure Ukraine wins this war.”
“What helps on the ground are weapons,” he added. “And we ask that these weapons be delivered immediately. Preferably for yesterday. The best option would have been the day before yesterday. It’s that urgent.”
– CNN’s Kevin Liptak contributed to this report.