American intelligence officials said Tuesday they now have “high confidence” that the explosion at Gaza’s Al-Ahli Arab Hospital last week was the result of a Palestinian rocket breaking up in mid-flight and that no Israeli weapon was involved in the blast be.
However, officials said many mysteries remain about the incident. This includes how many people were killed or injured when, according to the US, the warhead of a Palestinian rocket hit the hospital parking lot. However, they said there was little damage to the hospital itself and no collapse of the building.
U.S. intelligence agencies released no new images or other new evidence to support their arguments. Instead, they said their heightened assessment was based on Israeli records on Palestinian armed groups and publicly available videos. Those videos, the U.S. officials said, allowed them to assess that the rocket was fired from Gaza and that the warhead fell in the hospital parking lot after a “catastrophic engine failure.” The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss classified information, said there was no evidence that an Israeli launch could have been responsible.
U.S. officials said their assessment was also based on Israeli-provided communications recordings and images of the explosion and its aftermath. Last week, U.S. officials said their initial findings showed the explosion was caused by a Palestinian armed group, refuting Palestinian claims that an Israeli attack caused the blast. At the time, US spy agencies did not provide detailed evidence to support their assessment.
On Tuesday, US intelligence officials reiterated their assessment that Israel was not responsible for the explosion. The assessment reflected a higher level of certainty among U.S. intelligence officials that Israel was not responsible for the explosion.
Israel said the explosion, which caused a significant number of casualties, was caused by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a group allied with Hamas. The group said Israel’s allegations that one of its rockets malfunctioned and hit the hospital were “false and unfounded.” Hamas has provided no documentation of Israeli involvement. The New York Times has not independently verified either side’s claims.
The explosion at the hospital sparked protests across the region. In an early claim, Hamas said the hospital had been hit by an Israeli missile. President Biden, who flew to Israel for a visit last week, said there was preliminary evidence that the attack was “carried out by the other team” but that the conclusion was tentative.
But Hamas’s initial narrative has prevailed, particularly at a time when Israel carried out airstrikes in advance of a possible ground attack to eliminate Hamas after the terrorist attack killed more than 1,400 people, according to the Israeli government.
The latest American assessment is based in part on undiscovered intelligence. A senior intelligence official said there were no images of Palestinians showing an Israeli weapon from the bomb site.
U.S. officials said there was only minor damage at the site, consistent with the belief that a Gaza-made rocket broke up in flight, rather than that Israeli munitions hit the hospital.
Images of a fireball on the hospital grounds and after-the-fact images showing burned cars in the site’s parking lot suggest a defective missile, according to U.S. officials.
The American assessment also relies heavily on interceptions by Israeli secret services. U.S. officials said the Israelis provided several recordings that American intelligence agencies said they authenticated. All footage is second-hand accounts: Hamas members discussing their belief that the explosion was caused by a faulty or malfunctioning Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket. U.S. officials did not provide recordings or transcriptions of these recordings.
The declassified assessment does not provide specific information about where U.S. intelligence officials believe a rocket that caused the explosion was fired from the Gaza Strip.
However, the senior official said authorities would continue to investigate. If the U.S. receives additional information that would point in a different direction, the intelligence community would make it public, the official said.
On Monday, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said his country’s intelligence agencies had assessed that a Palestinian rocket fired into Israel from Gaza was the likely cause of the hospital’s death.
“Based on the extensive knowledge and analysis of our intelligence and weapons experts, the British government concludes that the explosion was likely caused by a rocket, or part of one, fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel,” Sunak said.
Last week, U.S. intelligence officials said they were working to confirm an Israeli assessment that the blast was caused by a misdirected missile fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
The number of victims of the hospital explosion remains controversial.
U.S. officials estimated last week that between 100 and 300 people were killed, but said the death toll was likely at the lower end of that range. On Tuesday, U.S. officials said they had little confidence in that assessment. The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said the death toll stood at 471, a figure revised down from the previous estimate of 500.
U.S. officials said Tuesday that an accurate count of people who died in hospital was not possible due to a lack of independent sources.
Days after Hamas accused Israel of bombing a hospital in Gaza City, killing hundreds of people, the Palestinian armed group has yet to provide or describe evidence linking Israel to the explosion or provide details on the number of the victims.
The Hamas-run Health Ministry also declined to release further details about the 471 victims, and all traces of the munitions appear to have disappeared from the site of the explosion, making determining their origin even more difficult. Raising further questions about Hamas’ claims, it turned out that the impact site was the hospital parking lot and not the hospital itself.