While the race for the White House has been going on for several months with Republican candidates making a series of appearances to try to win the primaries, the real start of the race will come Monday night with the Iowa caucuses. Here is an overview to understand their meaning.
1. What are meetings?
Organizing a caucus — like the one that will take place in the Midwestern state — is very different from an actual primary.
This means that it is not the voters who have to go to the polls on Monday evening, but rather the members of the Republican Party, who meet in small groups at the same time in schools, churches or even private homes.
Each candidate vying to become the one to face the elected Democrat has a representative who gives a speech in his favor to convince members to vote for him.
Participants then vote by writing their candidate's name on a small piece of paper that will send the elected representative directly to next July's Republican convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where the Republican champion will be elected.
2. Why are all eyes on Iowa?
For more than 50 years, Iowa has been the trigger in American elections and, above all, allows us to provide a first impression of voting trends that is more concrete than previous polls.
This state, which represents only 1% of the American population, will therefore appoint on Monday evening 40 delegates from the 2,467 representatives who will arrive from all states in July.
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The other races then follow each other in quick succession, with a primary in New Hampshire next week until “Super Tuesday” on March 5th, when around fifteen states such as Texas and California hold their primaries today.
3. Trump, DeSantis and Haley: Who is the favorite?
Six Republicans are still in the race to represent the party in next November's presidential election.
However, three of them stood out and will be under scrutiny Monday night: former President Donald Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Nikki Haley.
According to recent polls, Trump – who is currently on trial – would be the heavy favorite, winning nearly 50% of the Republican vote in Iowa, The New York Times reported. His other two main rivals would each capture about 20% or less of the voting intentions.
So if the former president manages to win Iowa in a landslide, he would still be the clear favorite for the nomination. In any case, on Sunday evening he did not hesitate to encourage his followers to come to these meetings, even if the cold might discourage some of them.
“You can’t stay home,” he told the crowd. “When you’re sick like a dog […], you can't stay at home. Even if you vote and die.”
The real question would therefore be who will come second in the Iowa caucuses and therefore pose the real threat to Trump.
In the short term, Nikki Haley could be her rival as she could win New Hampshire by seeking the moderate Republican vote. On the other hand, if DeSantis can win over conservative Republicans to his cause, he could be the candidate to watch.
4. What about the Democrats?
If Democrats and Republicans in Iowa always voted on the same day, that is no longer the case.
Members of the Democratic Party in this state can therefore choose between current President Joe Biden or Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson in a postal vote until February 19th.
There are few surprises to be expected in this election, as it is expected to confirm the inauguration of Joe Biden, who is running for a second term in the White House.