Destroyed Russian vehicles and tanks on Mykhailivska Square on November 19, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine. Millions of Ukrainians are facing severe power disruptions after recent waves of Russian missile and drone strikes reportedly crippled nearly half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and required repairs as temperatures plummet.
Jeff J Mitchell | News from Getty Images | Getty Images
Russian forces in Ukraine are burning up munitions faster than the country’s defense industry can replace them, Avril Haines, director of US National Intelligence, said on Saturday.
Russia is using up ammunition “quite quickly,” prompting Moscow to turn to other countries for help, including North Korea, Haines told NBC News’ Andrea Mitchell at a panel at the Reagan Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California.
When asked how fast Russia is using ammunition, Haines said, “I don’t think I can give you exact numbers on this forum. But pretty quickly. I mean, it’s really quite extraordinary.”
She added: “And we feel that they are not able to produce themselves what they are consuming at this point in time.
So that’s going to be a challenge.”
The Pentagon said last month that Russia is firing a staggering 20,000 artillery shells a day, despite suffering a series of setbacks on the battlefield. Echoing previous statements by Biden administration officials, Haines said Russia is using precision ammunition even faster than its conventional ammunition.
The Biden administration previously said Russia has approached North Korea to secure further shipments of artillery ammunition. Haines said the extent of North Korea’s aid appeared limited, but that intelligence agencies would continue to monitor it closely.
“We indicated that we saw some movement, but at the time it wasn’t much,” she said of North Korea’s role.
The looming ammunition shortage is just one of several challenges Russia’s military is facing, Haines said, also citing morale and logistical problems.
The intelligence chief said the pace of the war in Ukraine appeared to be slowing as winter set in and that both militaries would try to reset and regroup for more fighting in the spring. However, she said intelligence agencies were “quite skeptical” that Russian forces were adequately prepared for renewed clashes in March.
According to Haines, Russian President Vladimir Putin was “surprised” by his military’s disappointing performance after its invasion of Ukraine in February.
“I think he’s becoming better and better informed about the challenges facing the military in Russia. But it’s still not clear to us that he has a full picture of how challenged they are at this point,” Haines said.
Putin has not changed his policy goal of effectively controlling Ukraine, but it is unclear whether he would accept reduced military ambitions, Haines said.
“I think our analysts would say he might be willing to do that temporarily with the idea that he might then come back to this issue at a later date,” she said.
Although recent protests have not seriously challenged Putin’s rise to power, the warfare inside Russia has been increasingly criticized by politicians, and Haines said that could affect his decision-making on the conflict.
“I think it’s fair to say, from our perspective, that Xi’s voice on this issue will obviously be among the most convincing for Putin on this matter,” Haines said.
“I think it’s fair to say, from our perspective, that Xi’s voice on this issue will obviously be among the most convincing for Putin on this matter,” Haines said.
China and Tik Tok
Speaking on China’s recent protests against Covid-19 quarantine rules, Haines said the public outbursts posed no risk to the regime’s overall stability or survival. But she said: “How it plays out will be important for Xi’s reputation. “
The widespread protests went against the Chinese government’s narrative that the country is functioning more smoothly than chaotic democracies and that the Covid-19 restrictions have had a negative impact on the Chinese economy, Haines said.
Despite the challenges of striking a balance between containing the virus, managing public anger over quarantine protocols and ensuring economic growth, Xi is “unwilling to take a better vaccine from the West,” she said.
The director of US intelligence, the first woman to hold the post, also said there are good reasons to be concerned about Chinese-owned Tik-Tok.
When asked if parents should be worried about their kids using the popular video sharing platform, Haines said, “I think you should be.”
China is developing frameworks for gathering foreign data and had the capacity to “reverse that and use it to target audiences for information campaigns or other things, but also have it going forward so they can use it for a variety of means.” that they are interested in,” Haines said.
FBI Director Christopher Wray recently warned that he has serious concerns about Tik-Tok, saying it could allow the Chinese government to collect data on millions of users or control the recommendation algorithm, which could be used to intentionally sway public opinion .
Haines said that more than two months of women-led protests in Iran are “remarkable” but that the Iranian regime does not see the unrest as an immediate threat to staying in power. But the deteriorating economy and protests over time could fuel unrest and instability, she said.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and intelligence agencies have taken an “extraordinarily aggressive” stance toward critics at home and abroad, Haines said.
Haines’ office is overseeing an assessment of the potential risk to national security from the disclosure of documents extracted from former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home. But she and other intelligence officials have declined to comment on the case, which is a Justice Department investigation.
NBC News’ Mitchell asked Haines what would happen if an intelligence officer removed classified documents and then refused to return them.
After a long pause, Haines laughed and said, “Please don’t do that!”