NATO meeting in Brussels on 4 March. Despite the situation on the ground, NATO is reluctant to intervene directly in the conflict, including the creation of a no-fly zone. (Olivier Doulieri / Poole / AFP / Getty Images)
The 30 NATO members met in Brussels on Friday to discuss the alliance’s next steps in Ukraine. Diplomatic efforts have failed to end the chaos in the country, eight days after Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops to invade.
The situation in Ukraine seems unlikely to improve soon. A 40-kilometer Russian convoy heading to the capital Kyiv has been halted for days as Ukrainian fighters hold key areas while Russian troops take over other key strategic areas and from this morning occupy the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.
Despite the grim situation on the ground, NATO is reluctant to intervene directly in the conflict – including the creation of a no-fly zone – other than to support Ukraine’s resistance to an invasion that kills innocent civilians.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Friday that the no-fly zone over Ukraine was not an option being considered by the Alliance. “We agreed that we should not have NATO planes operating over Ukrainian airspace or NATO troops on Ukrainian territory,” he said.
What is a no-fly zone? A no-fly zone is an area where certain aircraft cannot fly for a number of reasons. In the context of a conflict like the one in Ukraine, this is likely to mean an area where Russian planes are not allowed to fly, to prevent them from carrying out air strikes against Ukraine.
NATO has already imposed no-fly zones in non-member countries, including Bosnia and Libya. However, this is always a controversial move because it means semi-involvement in conflict without the full involvement of the ground forces.
What will happen if NATO imposes a no-fly zone? The problem with no-fly zones is that they have to be imposed by military force. If a Russian plane enters a no-fly zone, then NATO forces will have to take action against that plane. These measures may include shooting the plane from the sky. In Russia’s eyes, this would be an act of war on the part of NATO and is likely to escalate the conflict.
Why didn’t NATO impose a no-fly zone? Neither Ukraine nor Russia are members of NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly sees NATO as a direct threat to its authority and recently criticized its enlargement to Russia, using it as an excuse to invade Ukraine.
As a result, NATO is extremely reluctant to participate directly in the conflict in Ukraine with a competitive nuclear power. While supporting Ukraine’s resistance and acknowledging Putin’s actions as an invasion of a sovereign nation, the alliance is simply unwilling to do anything that could be interpreted as a direct act of war against Russia and risk escalating that could lead to the use of of nuclear weapons.
Why does Russia feel threatened by NATO? Putin has long believed that Russia made a bad deal after the collapse of the Soviet Union – something he called “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.”
He complained that over time, NATO has expanded its borders to include Eastern European countries that were once part of the Soviet Union – meaning that Russia now shares a land border with the world’s largest military alliance. way reduces its geopolitical power in the former sphere of influence of Moscow.
As early as February, he urged NATO to return to the 1997 borders before the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, the latter two bordering Russia, join the alliance.
Read the full analysis here.