According to US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and military experts, the US push to send artillery to Ukraine indicates a deterioration in Russian forces, not only on the current battlefield but also over the long term.
The United States, France, the Czech Republic and other allies are sending dozens of longrange missiles to help Ukraine halt an escalating offensive in the eastern Donbass region.
Backed by better air defenses, attack drones and Western intelligence services, the allies hope Kyiv can destroy much of Russia’s weapon might in the coming confrontation.
After returning to Kyiv, where he met with Ukrainian defense chiefs and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Austin told reporters Monday that Washington’s expectations were higher.
Russia “already lost a lot of military capability and a lot of its troops, to be honest. And we want to see that they can’t replicate that ability quickly,” Austin said.
“We want Russia to be weakened to a level where it can no longer do the things it did by invading Ukraine,” he added.
“War of attrition”
This is a departure from Washington’s original approach, when it merely hoped to prevent Moscow’s takeover of the Ukrainian capital and the fall of the Zelenskyi government.
In fact, Ukrainian troops, using antiaircraft and antitank missiles provided by the United States and European allies, forced the Russian military to withdraw from northern Ukraine within six weeks of the February 24 offensive.
However, Moscow now controls much of eastern and southern Ukraine, apparently with intent to expand by sending more troops and equipment into the center of the country.
Experts believe his plan is to repel most of the Ukrainian forces with longrange bombs and then send troops and tanks to protect the territory.
According to Mike Jacobson, an American civilian field artillery specialist, Ukraine’s best option is to respond with superior artillery backed by protective airstrikes to crush Russian might.
Jacobson predicts this will lead to a “war of attrition” in which Ukraine could use materiel provided by allies with greater range and accuracy to deter the Russians.
“I think the superior artillery will undermine the Russians’ ability to sustain this fight,” Jacobson told AFP.
Phillips O’Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote that the coming artillery war would resemble World War I, in which each side tried to defeat the other with exhausting bombing raids.
Russia’s army “is significantly smaller and has suffered more equipment losses. The Ukrainian army is smaller but on the verge of being much better armed,” he explained.
“Russia must change this dynamic or it will lose the war of attrition,” he added.
fast delivery
The United States and other allies are speeding supplies to take advantage of the slow redeployment of Russian forces after their withdrawal from northern Ukraine.
At least 18 of the 90 weapons Washington has pledged over the past two weeks have already been shipped to Ukraine, with more to be shipped soon this week, according to a Pentagon official.
Washington is also supplying about 200,000 rounds of howitzer ammunition and is preparing ammunition for Russianmade artillery used by Ukrainian forces.
About 50 Ukrainian troops have already received training on how to use US howitzers, and more will follow this week.
Meanwhile, France is sending its ultramodern Caesar mobile howitzer and the Czech Republic is sending its former selfpropelled howitzers.
Canada is also sending advanced and guided “Excalibur” howitzers and projectiles that can travel over 40 km and hit the target accurately.
“Fighting in Donbass will depend largely on what we call longrange fire, particularly artillery,” a senior US defense official said.
“Therefore, we are focused on bringing artillery and tactical unmanned aerial vehicles to Ukraine,” the official said.
It refers to Allied “suicide drones,” unmanned bombarmed aerial vehicles that can be driven for hours to seek out and blow up Russian targets.
However, there is no guarantee that such a strategy will allow Ukraine to drive out the Russians.
If Kyiv prevails in artillery combat, “it will eventually “force[the Russians]to escalate or negotiate realistically,” Jacobson concluded. “Russia will be frustrated but not defeated.”