According to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and military experts, the United States’ push to send artillery to Ukraine is aimed at degrading Russian forces — not just on the immediate battlefield, but over the long term.
The United States, France, the Czech Republic and other allies are sending dozens of long-range howitzers to help Ukraine repel Russia’s mounting offensive in the eastern Donbass region.
Backed by better air defenses, attack drones and Western intelligence, the allies are hoping Kyiv can destroy much of Russia’s firepower in the upcoming showdown.
After returning from Kyiv, where he met with Ukrainian defense chiefs and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Austin told journalists in Poland early Monday that Washington’s hopes are higher.
Russia “already lost a lot of military capability and a lot of its troops, quite frankly. And we want to see that they aren’t able to reproduce that ability very quickly,” Austin said.
“We want Russia to be weakened to the point where it can no longer do the things it did when it invaded Ukraine.”
– ‘War of Attrition’ –
This is a departure from Washington’s initial approach, when it simply hoped to help prevent Moscow’s seizure of Ukraine’s capital and the fall of the Zelenskyy government.
Indeed, Ukrainian troops, using anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles supplied by the United States and European allies, forced the Russian military to withdraw from northern Ukraine within six weeks of the February 24 invasion.
But Moscow now controls sizable swaths of eastern and southern Ukraine, and apparently aims to expand by sending more troops and equipment into the center of the country.
Their plan, experts believe, is to use long-range shelling to push back most of Ukraine’s armed forces before sending in ground troops and tanks to secure the country.
According to Mike Jacobson, a US civilian field artillery expert, Ukraine’s best option is to fight back with superior artillery – backed by protection from air attack – to thwart Russian firepower.
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Jacobson predicted that this would lead to a “war of attrition” in which Ukraine, with longer-range and more accurate aiming equipment supplied by Allies, could stop the Russians.
“I believe that having superior artillery will reduce the Russians’ ability to sustain this fight,” Jacobson told AFP.
Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews who posts daily analysis of the war on Twitter, wrote that the artillery battle ahead will be similar to World War I, with each side attempting the other with attritional shells to wear down.
The Russian army “is considerably smaller and has suffered large losses of equipment. The Ukrainian army is smaller, but will soon be much better armed,” he said.
“Russia must change this dynamic or lose the war of attrition.”
– Fast Deployment –
The US and its allies are moving fast with supplies to take advantage of the slow redeployment of Russian forces after their blowback in northern Ukraine.
At least 18 of the 90 towed artillery pieces Washington has promised over the past two weeks have already been delivered to Ukraine’s armed forces, and more will be rushed in earlier this week, according to a Pentagon official.
Washington is also supplying nearly 200,000 rounds of howitzer ammunition and arranging ammunition shipments for the Russian-made artillery currently operated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Around 50 Ukrainian troops have already been trained to use the US howitzers, and more will be trained this week.
Meanwhile, France is sending its ultra-modern Caesar mobile howitzer, and the Czech Republic is supplying its older self-propelled howitzers.
Canada is also sending howitzers and advanced Excalibur guided shells that can fly more than 40 kilometers and fire ammunition with pinpoint accuracy.
“The battle they are in in Donbass will depend heavily on what we call long-range fire, particularly artillery,” a senior US defense official said.
“So we’re focusing them on getting them both artillery and tactical UAVs,” the official said.
That was a reference to allies supplying “suicide drones,” bomb-armed unmanned aerial vehicles that can be piloted for hours in search of Russian targets and then detonate themselves.
But no one says that such a strategy will allow Ukraine to drive out the Russians completely.
If Kyiv prevails in the artillery showdown, it will “ultimately force them (Russia) to either escalate or negotiate realistically,” Jacobson said.
“Russia will be frustrated but not defeated.”
pmh/caw