The United States will try to persuade China not to supply arms to Russia at a high-level meeting in Rome that the White House considers critical not only to the war in Ukraine, but to the future global balance of power.
Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, will meet with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi in the Italian capital amid reports that Russia has asked China for weapons to support its half-hearted invasion of Ukraine.
Sullivan will point out that the US informed Beijing of Vladimir Putin’s intentions months before the invasion, but the Chinese leadership ignored those warnings, mistakenly believing Putin was bluffing to gain leverage, according to sources familiar with the plans for the Rome meeting. Sullivan will also argue that if China supplies weapons to Moscow, it will be another historical mistake and a turning point in world politics.
The Biden White House is seeking to prevent a war in Ukraine that would further solidify the division of the world into two opposing blocs.
Sullivan and Yang will also follow up on agreements reached by Joe Biden and Xi Jinping at a virtual summit in November to improve communications between the two nuclear powers in times of crisis.
“We are also closely monitoring the extent to which China is actually providing any form of support – material or economic – to Russia,” Sullivan told CNN. “This is our concern. And we informed Beijing that we will not stand by and allow any country to compensate Russia for its losses from economic sanctions.”
Sullivan said the US had made it clear to Beijing that a “large-scale” effort to help Russia bypass sanctions “is bound to have consequences.”
Russia has also asked China for economic assistance as it faces heavy Western sanctions, but Sullivan told CNN the US is “bluntly, privately telling Beijing that there will be absolutely consequences” if China helps Russia evade sanctions.
The Financial Times, the New York Times and the Washington Post reported on Sunday about Russia’s arms request amid US officials saying the Russian military is short of some weapons.
Liu Penyu, a spokesman for the US embassy in Washington, told CNN that he had “never heard” of Russia’s arms requests.
“The current situation in Ukraine is really worrying,” he said in a statement. “Now the paramount concern is to prevent the tense situation from escalating or even spiraling out of control.”
“It looks like the US-China relationship is heading for a pretty significant fork,” said Ryan Huss, former China director at the US National Security Council. says on Twitter. “If China makes a material contribution to the Russian war machine in Ukraine, through the provision of equipment or significant layoffs, then China’s actions will hasten the splitting of the world in the direction of hostile blocs.
“It would be wise for the US to speak directly and confidentially with the Chinese at an authoritative level now to clarify the long-term strategic implications of China’s decisions at the moment.”
China has so far not condemned the Russian invasion or the massacre of civilians in the bombing of Ukrainian cities, and has abstained from passing resolutions condemning the attack in the Security Council and the UN General Assembly. Last week, Xi called for “maximum restraint” in Ukraine after a virtual meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, and said he was “hurt to see the flames of war rekindled in Europe.”
Xi Jinping also expressed concern about the impact of sanctions on the global economy and the restrictions that Western sanctions are placing on China’s ability to buy Russian oil.
Hass, now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said he did not expect any immediate breakthroughs at the meeting in Rome.
“The results may take weeks or more to become apparent,” he said. “Neither side is likely to please the other. Perhaps results should be measured in degrees rather than binary black-and-white ratios.