In the columns of The Economist we can read this prediction, which is amazing, knowing the current situation of the Russian armies and remembering the pathetic end of its previous attempt in the first months of the invasion: Moscow would prepare a new and massive ground offensive to capture Kyiv.
However, the media state that these are not their own predictions, but those of Valeri Zalouyny, a talented general leading the military dance on the Ukrainian side, who met with his comrade Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky and his leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“The Russians are preparing about 200,000 new soldiers,” says Valeri Zaloujny. “I have no doubt that they will try to attack Kyiv again,” he adds, specifying that this new ground attack could be launched as early as January 2023, most likely in the spring, from Belarus, Donbass or southern Ukraine.
There are indeed some worrying signs on the Russian side. The Belarusian threat continues to hang over the conflict, with troop movements and military maneuvers which, while appearing to be just a red flag according to British intelligence, are nonetheless leading the Ukrainian general staff to prepare for any eventuality.
Most importantly, Moscow is already preparing a new wave of mobilizations, despite its strong denials and the deadly risks this would pose for the Russian economy. It even started in the shadows, according to some analysts, because the previous one never officially ended.
caution
But while they are the main victims and quite skilled in their field, caution is warranted in the face of these dire forecasts by the Ukrainian general staff. Despite some signs of resistance, the Russian economy is already ailing and is slipping more and more into a deep and permanent slump due to the war and the resulting sanctions.
If the front lines are currently relatively immovable – with nonetheless fierce fighting around and in the town of Bakhmout – the winter could be militarily unfavorable for an ill-equipped and fighting Russia. And a possible support from Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko seems unlikely or contemplated, despite some worrying moves.
Ukraine may not pause operationally to delay and rearm, but instead seek to capitalize on its momentum and extend its advantage over the freezing mud, perhaps towards Melitopol, where it also recently struck a Russian base, as a bridge that can yield some clues to its next goals.
The majority of Western analysts therefore believe neither in such a start from Moscow nor in a new massive attack on the ground. At least not the way it is. Russian troops are exhausted, poorly equipped, poorly trained. They were decimated by hundreds of thousands of combatants, often unfortunate conscripts sent to the front lines with no real training or even equipment, but sometimes valuable and respected units as well.
In addition, Russian troops lack ammunition, leaving them to rely on old, rusty shells made 40 years ago and North Korea to continue the fight on the ground. The shortage is so severe that, according to British Army Chief Admiral Tony Radakin, “the capacity [des Russes] conducting successful operations on the ground is rapidly declining”.
And if the massive arrival amid the macabre dance of Iranian missiles and drones could offer Moscow a destructive start, Kiev’s allies are not standing by and working to arm it with the means to sustainably defend its skies — and its infrastructures. cynically targeted by Russia. So, the likely imminent arrival of Patriot air defense systems could change the situation.
On Monday, December 12, Vladimir Putin also canceled a traditional year-end press conference, perhaps for fear of being faced with too many questions and doubts about the true state of his war against his Ukrainian neighbor. But on the other hand, Valeri Zaloujny has a keen interest in keeping the pressure on Kiev’s allies.
Because while Russia isn’t really preparing a new massive offensive, her country needs more weapons – especially at longer ranges, which the British are no longer ruling out – to take back her country, and perhaps even that which was captured in 2014 by her encroaching neighbor. especially Crimea.
This need for material is all the more obvious, explains The Economist, when a little music is heard again that speaks for a cessation of fighting and for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, for example on the side of ‘Emmanuel Macron, whose words are sometimes irritating pretty strong. In this uncertain context, Kyiv has a great interest in putting itself in a position of strength by any means necessary.