The increase in tensions between Venezuela and Guyana due to the threat of the government of Nicolás Maduro to annex the Essequibo region to its territory is in Russia's interest as it weakens North American foreign policy. This is the assessment of Vicente Ferraro, political scientist and researcher at USP's Asian Studies Laboratory with a focus on Russia and Eurasia.
According to the scientist who spoke in an interview with the podcast The topic this Monday (11)A possible conflict in Latin America makes Russia's actions in Ukraine easier.
“I would say that the main point of a Russian interest, perhaps even a conflict, is that a conflict here would lead to greater division within American foreign policy, in the sense that American foreign policy would be unable to to focus on just Ukraine, but there would be other conflicts, other tensions that would split the focus, so that would be weakened [a política externa norteamericana]”Ferraro explains.
“These elements of tension divert the focus from Ukraine, and this ultimately has a positive impact on Russia's role in the war against Ukraine,” he informs.
The political scientist reported that what he calls a “loss of focus” in US foreign policy began with the conflict between Israel and Palestine. “The focus that was solely on Ukraine is starting to split, and then that American military and economic support is starting to become increasingly unstable.”
Conflict in Latin America Russian interest
VenezuelaRussia relations
On Monday's episode of The topicFerrari also looked back at relations between Russia and Venezuela. He explained why there was greater rapprochement between the two countries from the 2010s onwards. “Russia is starting the socalled projection into the distance,” he said. Since then, Putin has made Venezuela his “main geopolitical tool in Latin America.”
The political scientist also analyzes how Putin and Maduro use “nationalism” and the presence of “external enemies” to gain popular support. The Venezuelan faces presidential elections in 2024 and the Russian recently announced that he would seek another term at the helm of the Kremlin.
Vicente Ferraro also assesses Guyana's request for help from the Americans, who have already conducted military exercises on Guyanese territory. He explains that Brazil needs to take a “more forceful position” “through diplomatic channels, but without military pressure.”
Russian interest in Venezuela