Victor Howland is among the 4 strongest figures in Bay Hill

PGA TOUR continues its swing in Florida at Bay Hill Club & Lodge to play at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2022 this week. The event is at the heart of TOUR, appearing in the schedule every year since 1979.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par 72 by 7454 yards and features Bermuda grass. Before last year, the previous five editions of Arnold Palmer Invitational gave international champions. Bay Hill can be extremely difficult to play if the wind gets stronger, but the course certainly has teeth, whether there is wind or not.

There are 120 golfers for an event that usually attracts very strong fields, but with the PLAYERS championship next week, several top players have chosen to stay without it. However, the field will still include some of the best in the world such as John Ram, Rory McIlroy, Victor Howland, Hideki Matsuyama Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick, Scotty Scheffler, Paul Casey and Tommy Fleetwood.

Past winners in Bay Hill

• 2021: Bryson DeChambo (-11)
• 2020: Tyrell Hatton (-4)
• 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
• 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
• 2017: Mark Lishman (-11)
• 2016: Jason’s Day (-17)

5 key statistics for Bay Hill

Let’s take a look at five key Bay Hill metrics to determine which golfers have the highest scores in each category in the last 24 rounds.

1. Impacts received: approach

The approach is often the most important statistic and this week will be no different. This is a difficult golf course and players will be penalized for missing greens in the regulation.

General SG: approach over the last 24 rounds

1. Will Zalaris (+24.8) (+2500)
2. Victor Howland (+22.0) (+1800)
3. Tom Hodge (+22.0) (+10000)
4. Paul Casey (+21.3) (+4000)
5. Hudson Swaford (+18.7) (+25000)

2. Blows received: Outside of these

To compete in Bay Hill, golfers will need excellent off-course performance. Distance is important because of the length of the route and its layout, but accuracy is just as important.

We’ve seen recent events where golfers can get away with bad shots, but Bay Hill is not one of those courses. The rough hit is extremely thick and punitive, so saving after a bad hit with it is unlikely.

SG: OTT in the last 24 rounds

1. John Ram (+26.8) (+750)
2. Rory McIlroy (+19.2) (+1000)
3. Cameron Young (+19.1) (+9000)
4. Keith Mitchell (+18.9) (+4500)
5. Sergio Garcia (+17.6) (+5000)

3. Shots received: launch (Bermuda shorts and lightning)

The main reason Bay Hill plays as one of the toughest pitches in TOUR is the incredibly fast greens. The surfaces of Bermuda played lightning fast in every round of 2017.

SG: Placement (Bermuda and Lightning) in the last 24 rounds:

1. Zack Johnson (+26.7) (+25000)
2. Danny McCarthy (+24.0) (+13000)
3. Brendan Todd (+22.9) (+15000)
4. Bo Hosler (+21.6) (+20000)
5. Christian Besuidenhout (+19.6) (+5000)

4. Received shots: Ball hit

While hitting the ball is partly beyond those and the approach, I want the whole tee to green package to be built into the model this week, as it will take a well-rounded tee to green effort to do so at Bay Hill.

SG: BS in the last 24 rounds

1. John Ram (+41.2) (+750)
2. Will Zalaris (+34.9) (+2800)
3. Luke List (+33.9) (+7000)
4. Victor Howland (+32.8) (+1800)
5. Paul Casey (+25.6) (+4000)

5. Blows received: Par. 5

With four par 5 on the court it will be important to take advantage of these holes. Although I do not expect the winning result to be as inspiring as last year, it will certainly not be a bird festival.

The one who makes the most of a par with a chance to score may have the best shot to win.

SG: Par 5 in the last 24 rounds

1. Matt Fitzpatrick (+19.5) (+2200)
2. Aaron Paradise (+16.7) (+25000)
3. Seamus Power (+14.3) (+6000)
4. Max Homa (+13.4) (+4500)
5. Hideki Matsuyama (+13.0) (+2500)

Ranking of models with invitations for Arnold Palmer

Below, I compiled an overall ranking of the model using a combination of the five key statistical categories discussed above – SG: approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Bermuda / flash placement (18%) ), SG: Ball hit (17%) and SG: Par 5 (15%).

1. John Ram (+750)
2. Sungjae Im (+2200)
3. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200)
4. Russell Henley (+4000)
5. Luke List (+7000)
6. Lanto Griffin (+7500)
7. Seamus Power (+6000)
8. Mark Lishman (+2800)
9. Victor Howland (+1800)
10. Will Zalaris (+2800)

2022 Arnold Palmer Call for Choices

Victor Howland (+1800) in DraftKings

Howland comes this week with hot irons, which is the most important aspect of taming Bay Hill. In his last start on the Riviera, the 24-year-old received 6.1 strokes on approach. The performance lags only behind Tony Finau and the winner Joaquin Niemann in the category, leading Howland to fourth place.

Howland was also very good on the Riviera last season. He amassed 4.1 strokes in the approach (fifth place finish) and improved his hot form the following week. His next start came at the WGC Concession, where he finished second with 8.7 shots on approach, the best result of his career. Howland is heading to Florida again after a strong performance on the Riviera and I expect another performance on the ceiling.

The world’s No. 4 golfer recently won the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour (January 2022). Despite worldwide success, Hovland is still looking for a remarkable victory in the PGA TOUR. Bay Hill would be a logical place for that to happen.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000) at bet365

It’s no secret that Fitzpatrick loves Bay Hill very much. Fitz finished in the top 10 in his last three starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with his best final (second) coming in 2019.

Although he obviously has a history of the course on his part, the Englishman is also judged perfectly for Bay Hill. In the field, Fitzpatrick ranks first with a score of 5, sixth in the shots gained: Putting lightning green Bermuda shorts, and 12th in shots received: Off the Tee. With a game created for this course, it is no surprise that he has excelled here throughout his career.

The 27-year-old scored 4.2 shots in his last start at the WM Phoenix Open and 7.2 shots from tee to green. His game is rounded out at the right time to finally win his first PGA TOUR victory.

Paul Casey (+4000) in DraftKings

Among Casey’s three victories in the PGA TOUR, two came to the state of Florida at the 2018 Walspar Championships and 2019. Like Copperhead, Bay Hill is a great course suitable for Casey, given the difficult conditions and potentially higher than normal. winning result.

Looking at the history of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, one of the first things worth mentioning is the number of elite European players who have had success at Bay Hill. Prior to Bryson Deschamps’ dominant victory last season, the last three winners were Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari and Tyrell Hatton. Casey is a European with a similar model, who has a lot of experience in the Ryder Cup (like the other three) and does well in difficult conditions.

In addition to the perfect fit on the course, the 44-year-old plays excellent golf. At the Genesis Invitational, Casey received 5.6 strokes in the approach and finished 15th. With four par 3s on the 200+ yard move, Casey should have the advantage, as he receives an average of 2.4 shots on the pitch per par 3 event of this length.

With two top 10 rankings in his last three Bay Hill attempts, Casey has proven he has what it takes to fight on the field.

Danny Willett (+20,000) at DraftKings

Willett offers net capital for profit. You won’t find many golfers in the mid-30s with nine professional wins in the three-digit odds on this week’s odds, but that’s where we find Willett.

Given that he won recently in October (Alfred Dunhill Links Championship) in a relatively strong field, it is safe to say that his game is in good shape. He stressed that last week the Honda Classic, although not very high in the rankings. He was stable statistically and won 5.6 shots from tee to green during the week.

Willett’s problems came with the blow, where he lost a terrible 4.4 blows. He has shown that he is capable of dealing with hard and fast greens in the past, as he won The Masters in Augusta National. Although the surface is different, the speed of the greens in Bay Hill is one of the few that can rival Augusta.

Willett has a solid history of the course, finishing 18th and 31st in his last two trips to Bay Hill. If this week is difficult, the 34-year-old Englishman has the grind mentality to fight Arnold Palmer Invitational.