Political scientist Victoria Murillo.Courtesy
Political scientist Victoria Murillo (Buenos Aires, 55 years old) believes that the Peronist candidate for the presidency of Argentina, Sergio Massa, reached the second round of elections for two reasons: he is a “courageous” politician who has left “his” politician Competitors on the Street” and meets Javier Milei. In this way, he explains that the current Minister of Economy of a country in crisis – inflation exceeds 140%, four out of ten residents live in poverty and central bank reserves are at a minimum – has real opportunities to achieve this, according to the Casa Rosada Elections this Sunday. The other candidate, a right-wing ultra-liberal with no political experience who has broken the democratic consensus built over the last 40 years, has a similar chance, according to the polls.
Murillo has followed the Argentine election process from Columbia University, where she is a professor of political science and international studies and directs the Institute of Latin American Studies. From then on, together with other women, she spoke out against Milei and spoke out in favor of the “unacceptable proposals” of the leader of La Libertad Avanza, as also made by former presidents, economists, Nobel Prize winners, artists, intellectuals… “The Anti “Sooner or later I would arrive in Argentina early,” says the political scientist, who speaks to EL PAÍS via video conference. Murillo warns that the fragmentation that Milei’s emergence has caused in the Argentine political scene is still “limited”: “We cannot know where it will lead.”
Questions. Why are these elections generating so much interest outside the country?
Answer. What arouses the most interest is Milei. As a right-wing and populist candidate, he identifies with Trump or Bolsonaro and sees himself as part of a global movement. There is a feeling that Argentina is part of a global wave. It is a different choice than the previous ones since it is not read in an Argentine key but in a global key.
Q Was it to be expected that an anti-system candidate would also emerge in Argentina?
R. This was to be expected given that Argentina has had very poor economic performance under several governments and there is generally an economic downturn in Latin America. It has been seen in Chile, for example, and one would expect it would also happen in Uruguay at some point. When people don’t like the president and have a party system, they take turns; But when you try and they don’t offer solutions, an outsider usually emerges. The anti-system anger would reach Argentina sooner or later. Milei isn’t a particularly prepared character: it’s more about her being in the right place at the right time. Then of course there are also political actors who benefited from its creation.
Q Who benefits?
R. In the European case, it is in the interest of the left parties that the extreme right grows because it divides the right. In the United States, the general election saw money from Democrats going to extreme Republican candidates. In Argentina it is the same: the division of the opposition clearly favors Peronism. If there had been just one opposition member, I don’t think the election would have been so hotly contested. Argentina followed a logic that also favored Milei’s growth, even more than he expected.
Q How do you explain that Massa, the current economy minister of a crisis country, is a competitive candidate?
R. Massa faces a candidate who breaks the democratic consensus and has no ability to govern. If he had another candidate in front of him, he would not be a competitive candidate because the economy is in a more than complicated situation and he was not able to solve it in the year he was in the ministry; We won’t know what he’ll do that he hasn’t done yet if he wins. In addition, Massa was a very courageous and skillful politician who was able to take advantage of every opportunity that came his way during the election campaign.
Q Does Milei’s appearance end the change between two major coalitions, the Peronist Unión por la Patria and the conservative Together for Change?
R. Both coalitions were very heterogeneous before Milei’s appearance. They were bonded more by fear than by love, as Jorge Luis Borges would say. When Peronism split in 2015 and Massa founded the Renovador Front, this enabled the victory of [Mauricio] Macri. And when the opposition was fragmented, Peronism was more hegemonic. They persevered as long as there were only two options; The crack held her in place. So far this polarization has been dominant in Argentina, but now we are seeing an increase in fragmentation, which is still limited. In other Latin American countries, outsiders are emerging in contexts that result from greater fragmentation. To give an example: in Chile, in the last in-person election that took place after the social outbreak, we saw much greater fragmentation, a situation similar to that in Spain with four quarters. In Argentina we have not yet reached this level of fragmentation. It is a moment of transition and we cannot know where it will lead.
Q What will the opposition look like? Do you see clear leaders?
R. It’s easy to imagine resistance against Milei and an extremely unstable government. We know that it has no capacity to govern, it has no governors, it has few deputies, few senators, it has no team… Peronism would unite against Milei, even a part of radicalism would join. If Massa wins, it is less clear what the opposition leadership will say. A lot will depend on how what happens with Together for Change ultimately unfolds. [la coalición conservadora se fracturó tras la derrota en la primera vuelta de su candidata, Patricia Bullrich, y el ala más dura apoyó a Milei].
Q Where would Milei be in this scenario?
R. Milei has never played a political role, not even during his two years as deputy. Where is? Maybe back to the media? With an enormous amount of knowledge and the emergence of a right-wing extremist social movement, especially among young men. This space exists in many countries: it is the space of men who feel left behind. There is another room that I cannot understand, namely that of [la compañera de fórmula de Milei, Victoria] Villarruel and militarization. Not just the reinterpretation of state terrorism, but also the idea of militarization of security. I don’t think there are people in the active Argentine armed forces who want that. I don’t understand why I should go in.
Q No votes will be added.
R. No. Unless Villarruel’s goal is to question the democratic consensus. The way we argue has already changed. So-called niche parties in Europe, such as the Front National in France, did not necessarily strive for power when they emerged. Above all, they tried to influence the political agenda, and they did so very successfully. Once the political agenda changes, it becomes easier for them to collect votes. When the horribly outside the system issues they propose become normal, the extreme party becomes less extreme. Villaruel proposes a clear break with the consensus emerging from the democratic transition, which appears to be purely ideological.
Q 40 years of democracy have passed. How strong is the democratic consensus in Argentina? Was space left open to continue questioning state terrorism or public education, for example?
R. I can’t say what will happen, but it seems to me that the fact that this discussion has arisen has to do not only with the characters, but also with a dissatisfaction with the system. I love public education, I’m here because of public education and the only private school I went to in my life was Harvard, on a scholarship. Well: The reality is that the quality of public education has declined. When someone criticizes public education, it is not an empty criticism, but a reality and a discussion that we are not having.
Q Was the door also left open to continue questioning state terrorism?
R. It’s a topic that Villarruel touched on. In this sense she has a very intelligent and deceptive language. The entry based on the victims of the terrorist attacks is a common sense approach that often ignores the fact that those who committed these crimes were not convicted. I don’t know how much the issue of justice and human rights reaches the general public. I had to go to the trial as a girl in the audience [a las Juntas militares] and shaped my life. But today’s children have no memory of the 2001 crisis, let alone the democratic transition. Perhaps human rights should be conceptualized more as state policy, as they are often appropriated in a more partisan manner and this allows insights into the issue that would not have been thought of before.