The wave of violence that Ecuador is currently suffering can be read as a new phenomenon in a country that has so far been on the edge of the serious insecurity problems of other neighboring countries such as Peru and Colombia. That was buried in the past. The last three years have seen prison riots in which dozens of people were killed by knife, an attack with dynamite and long guns on a live television station, bombings in barracks and police stations, and targeted assassinations of politicians and presidential candidates. The drug trade has quietly become a parallel power to the state, controlling judges, generals and police. One might think that the collapse of institutions has occurred in record time. However, a look at the last 40 years shows that the problems that have now arisen have arisen since the 1980s, when large-scale drug trafficking began and the first gangs emerged.
Reconstruction of the day of violence in Ecuador last Tuesday
“Ecuador as an island of peace is a misnomer,” explains Daniel Pontón, university professor at the Institute for Advanced National Studies of Ecuador and security analyst. Unlike Colombia, there were no guerrillas there. The government crushed some tentative attempts, but by the 1980s the murder rate began to rise. At that time, says Pontón, the presence of Mexican drug cartels, which had previously been a secret, was registered. Problems at the border were exacerbated by the presence of the FARC and Colombian paramilitary groups on the other side. To combat these threats, the state authorized the establishment of a North American military base at Manta in the north.
A woman arrives at the police station after an attack on January 12 in Guayaquil. Ivan Alvarado (Portal)
The rise to power in 2007 of Rafael Correa, the politician who would rule for the next decade, saw an outbreak of violence and drug trafficking. Plan Colombia, an agreement between that country's government and the United States to combat crime, created a criminal diaspora on Ecuadorian territory. Correa later had to contend with a police riot in 2010, during which he himself was taken hostage in a police station, leading to a very serious security crisis. The president, who reduced the country's poverty by several points thanks to an oil and raw materials boom, implemented a judicial reform that had an immediate impact. The number of homicides, which was 20 per 100,000 inhabitants at the beginning of the century, was drastically reduced to 5.6 at the end of his term in office.
Safe hand
The prison population quadrupled from 10,000 to 40,000. “It was of course a heavy-handed policy, although Correa now denies it,” Pontón adds. A new, stricter criminal code was created, oil surpluses were invested in the police, the police were rewarded for capturing high-profile criminals and therefore the most wanted people ended up in prison. Correa completed his term with 62% approval and named Lenín Moreno as his successor. He, who would soon distance himself from his mentor, held a plebiscite to intervene in the Citizen Participation Council and create a Territorial Council that would scrutinize all institutions, including the judiciary.
From now on, Pontón marks a before and after. It coincides with the kidnapping and murder of three Peruvian journalists from the newspaper El Comercio by an armed group in northern Ecuador that operated in both countries. Then there were terrorist attacks, such as the blowing up of a police station, which caused great excitement. This led Moreno to remove all correístas from his government, such as the head of the secret service and the defense and interior ministers. He carried out a comprehensive reform in security matters, much more conservative and closer to the USA.
Police inspect a man in Guayaquil this Friday. Ivan Alvarado (Portal)
That's not necessarily the cause, but it's the beginning of what would happen next. These prison inmates had created criminal structures that exceeded the capacity of the officials. Starting in 2019, when riots broke out, the prisons turned into a powder keg. Over the next four years, nearly 500 prisoners would be killed in these riots. The Los Choneros gang took control of the main prisons, allied with the Sinaloa Cartel to export cocaine on a large scale to the United States, and from there, although it may seem contradictory, began building their criminal network . “Moreno never took the massacres seriously. There was never any decisive intervention. In fact, during the pandemic, the prison budget was cut,” recalls Pontón.
Right-wing businessman Guillermo Lasso became president in 2021 and had the entire issue on the table. Various experts agree that his security policies were erratic. The gangs responded with a riot that left more than 70 dead in Guayaquil prison. The feeling of decomposition was total. This is clearly reflected in the murder rate. It rose from six per 100,000 inhabitants in 2019 to 25.6 in 2022. The country became a giant morgue. Last year it reached 45, making Ecuador one of the most dangerous places in the world.
Guayaquil residents look out their door as police prepare a checkpoint this Friday in Guayaquil. Ivan Alvarado (Portal)
Daniel Noboa, a young businessman who has been in power for 60 days, is now facing the biggest crisis of all, the crisis caused by criminal gangs who want to control all the state's resources. Noboa said during the campaign that he had a plan to combat insecurity, but time had passed and he did not implement it, he only asked the army to patrol the streets, a recipe that previous presidents had used .
Andrea Suárez, Director of Public Affairs at LLYC, is not entirely sure that this is the right way: “Although this can be understood as a factor of progress, its effectiveness is tested against two main factors: feasibility and availability of resources.” In the first In this case, the dynamics of joint work between the armed forces and the intelligence services of the National Police will be crucial. This is not an everyday situation and oiling the gears that put an articulated work in motion could, above all, take some time.
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