The French President’s three-day state visit to Beijing and Guangzhou ends on Friday. According to Marc Julienne, head of China operations at Ifri’s Asia hub, nothing went as planned for the French leader.
This trip aimed to renew the face-to-face dialogue after three years at a distance due to the health crisis. Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to China will end on Friday, April 7 with a stopover in Canton, where he will have a final dinner with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Accompanied by a large delegation, the French head of state met his counterpart several times, notably on the war in Ukraine, alongside the head of European diplomacy, Ursula von der Leyen. What can we learn from this exchange? Franceinfo interviewed Marc Julienne, Head of China Activities at the Asia Center of the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri) to answer.
Franceinfo: Emmanuel Macron made the war in Ukraine one of the priorities of this trip. From your point of view, what was the result?
Marc Julienne: Ukraine is an unavoidable issue, but it should not have been placed high on the agenda. It was illusory to seek a solution to the war from Beijing. All analyzes agreed that Emmanuel Macron would get nothing, and he didn’t get anything. Xi Jinping has no interest in a political solution to this conflict, just as he has no interest in providing military support to Vladimir Putin.
However, the French President urged him not to deliver arms to Moscow, a French diplomat on the spot reported…
The Elysée’s analysis is ambiguous on this issue. Is Xi Jinping a potential mediator or potential military support for Russia? It is surprising that we do not know how to choose between these two attitudes. By not understanding China’s position, France is sending a rather negative signal to our partners in terms of credibility. Emmanuel Macron no doubt believed he could change things and it might be worth trying. But this is a second failure on the diplomatic stage after his attempt to dissuade Valdimir Putin from invading Ukraine. It’s expensive in terms of image.
However, Xi Jinping said he was ready to call his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Do you think that’s a sufficient gesture?
It was European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen who reported at a press conference after meeting Xi Jinping that he was ready to call the Ukrainian President. And he would if the conditions were right. He had said it before, as had his statement that “nuclear weapons don’t [pouvaient] not be used”. This is a general policy principle.
Was the presence of Ursula von der Leyen a good thing at the initiative of Emmanuel Macron?
It was a good initiative, but nothing went as planned. Between Emmanuel Macron’s invitation and the visit, on March 30, Ursula von der Leyen delivered a clear and firm speech on China. She sent a signal perceived as negative by Beijing, which did two things: the Chinese were not very happy about her coming, and Emmanuel Macron’s attitude, on the other hand, seemed apprehensive given the very confident and demanding presidency of the European Commission.
Emmanuel Macron nevertheless had the ambition to be “a voice that unites Europe”, which is why he says he invited the President of the European Commission to accompany him…
France claims to be a leading power in Europe, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a driving force in the “Indo-Pacific”. However, she remains deaf and dumb to the overriding security concern in the region, stability in the Taiwan Strait. The Elysée had announced that the issue would not be discussed except at China’s initiative, which is quite surprising. If tomorrow we can no longer travel through the Straits, an international trade route, France will be directly affected. Emmanuel Macron wanted to stay on a positive stance, but that will not improve our relations with China, which respects power relations.
Didn’t the French President also want to embody a “Third Way” between the US and China?
In fact, we talk a lot about this third way. However, this can be interpreted as France’s equidistance between the United States and China, and this position lacks clarity. Emmanuel Macron spends a lot of time emphasizing his non-alignment with the United States. That’s fine, but it’s easier to tell them your four truths because they are our allies. The problem is that the French president is not doing the same to China. We must be just as open, even strict, with Beijing. Disagreements should not be swept under the rug.
Was this visit to France, attended by many entrepreneurs, still economically viable?
Contracting French companies is profitable, yes. But again, Emmanuel Macron has dodged a very serious issue that worries France and Europe: the trade deficit with China. Ursula von der Leyen recalled the unequal access to the Chinese market due to protectionism. There is no reciprocity in mutual trade and investment. As French head of state, he remained in a position of VRP of French companies to promote economic relations. But this is a strategic mistake.