The US intelligence chief said Vladimir Putin was “better informed” about the difficulties his invading forces were facing in Ukraine, given the Kremlin’s suggestion that the Russian president should leave the occupied Donbass region at an unspecified date in the future future might visit.
Avril Haines, the US intelligence director, told a defense forum late Saturday that Putin is no longer as insulated from bad news about the terms of his invasion of Ukraine as he was at the start of the campaign.
Alluding to previous assessments that Putin’s advisers could shield him from bad news, Haines said he was “getting better informed about the challenges facing the military in Russia.”
“But it’s still not clear to us that at this point he has a full picture of how challenged they are,” she told an audience at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California.
Haines’ comments reflect a broader internalization of Russia’s military failures in Ukraine, increasingly reflected in pronouncements by key regime propagandists, in opinion polls, and in analysis by the Russian military blogger community.
The scale of the challenges facing the Russian president has also been underscored by a series of battlefield setbacks in recent months, leading to the Russian withdrawal from the Kharkiv region, from Kherson Oblast – including the key city of the same name – and from Parts have led to the Russian-occupied Donbass region.
Although Moscow has responded by attacking key Ukrainian civilian energy infrastructure to force Kyiv to make concessions, that campaign has only had a partial effect, as Ukrainian engineers have acted quickly to repair damaged power plants and Western allies have dispatched emergency power generators to help help to disperse the energy grid of Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s vague comments about a possible Putin visit on Saturday seemed intended more for public consumption in Russia than to indicate that a visit is imminent.
Speaking to Russian news agencies, the Kremlin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said of every Putin visit: “In due course, of course, this will happen. This is a region of the Russian Federation.”
With ongoing fierce fighting around the key Donbass town of Bakhmut, where Russian forces have been struggling to make minimal progress for the past six months, and a Ukrainian attempted offensive reported around Kreminna in recent days, the political and security conditions seem inappropriate for a Putin visit to appear unfavorable.
Reports on social media also suggested that Ukrainian forces were making progress on operations on the east bank of the Dnipro River opposite the recently liberated city of Kherson following a reported amphibious landing on the Kinburn Spit last month.
Videos and stills posted to Telegram and Twitter show a Ukrainian flag being tied to a crane near shore in a port area on the east side of the river by a special forces unit who are using the area as a “springboard for the dissolution of the left [east] shores of the Kherson region”.
Footage of the investigation/psyche-out operation raising a flag on the left bank of the Dnieper opposite Kherson. The Russians left the area deserted. https://t.co/Ouvqt8PTkd
— Tom Warner (@warnerta) December 3, 2022
According to reports, Ukrainian forces reached the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City. If confirmed, this limited Ukrainian incursion into the east bank could open up avenues for Ukrainian forces to operate on the east bank.https://t.co/0yKihmNaJc pic.twitter.com/3uahyVhpjb
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) December 4, 2022
While Ukrainian operations east of the river were under an operational news blackout, Vitaly Kim, the governor of Mykolayiv Oblast, has previously confirmed the presence of Ukrainian forces in the area.
Facing a second winter of fighting in Ukraine, Haines suggested fighting would continue at a “reduced pace” for the time being, adding that there could be a brighter outlook for Ukrainian forces in the coming months.
“Honestly, we’re already seeing some kind of reduced pace of the conflict,” she said, adding that her team expected both sides to try to re-equip, resupply and rebuild for a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring.
“Most of the fighting is currently taking place around Bakhmut and Donetsk region,” she said. “But we’re actually pretty skeptical that the Russians will be willing to do that. And I think more optimistically for Ukrainians in this time frame.”
In his late-night address on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the West’s efforts to target the Russian oil industry, a key source of cash for Putin’s war machine, saying the $60-a-barrel price cap on imports of Russian oil was insufficient .
“It is not a serious decision to set such a limit on Russian prices, which is quite convenient for the terrorist state’s budget,” said Zelenskyy, referring to Russia. He said the $60 a barrel level would still allow Russia to generate $100 billion in annual revenue.
“This money will be used not only for the war, and not only for Russia’s continued support of other terrorist regimes and organizations. This money will be used for further destabilization of those countries that are now trying to avoid serious decisions,” Zelenskyy said.
Australia, Britain, Canada, Japan, the US and the 27-nation European Union agreed on Friday to cap the price they would pay for Russian oil at $60 a barrel. The limit is due to come into effect on Monday, along with an EU embargo on Russian oil shipped by sea.
Russian authorities have rejected the price cap and on Saturday threatened to halt shipments to the nations that have backed it.
Agencies contributed to this report