Defense of Ukraine is not enough. Defeating Russia on the battlefield is not enough. We must use every means at our disposal to ensure that Vladimir Putin never again commits the atrocities that have marked his two decades in power.
Fortunately, this week it was made absolutely clear that the Biden administration recognizes this need and has made it a strategic core of its foreign and national security policies.
On Monday, following a visit to Ukraine with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said: “We want Russia to be weakened to the point where it can no longer do the things it did when it invaded Ukraine. “
Although a senior US official admitted to me (somewhat uneasily) that “Austin said the soft part out loud,” it soon became clear that the US was publicly ready to embrace the new target, Russia’s unprovoked, brutal escalation of its eight-year-old war in Ukraine resulted in a lasting and significant defeat for the Kremlin.
On Tuesday in Germany – at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Consultative Group (an assembly of countries from around the world pledged to support Ukraine’s war effort) – Secretary of State Austin said the US was convinced that Ukraine war with Russia could win. Austin’s spokesman, John Kirby, stated, “We don’t want a Russia capable of wielding that kind of malign influence in Europe or anywhere in the world.”
Minister Blinken – who said a month ago the war in Ukraine would result in a “strategic defeat” for Russia and earlier this month said Russia has already experienced such a defeat – argued before Congress on Tuesday that it was the budget of the State Department had to be fully funded in order to ensure Russia’s “strategic failure”. Senior National Security Council (NSC) officials have reiterated that this is a new, explicit goal of the US and its allies.
Statements by the US are not mere rhetoric. Interviews with senior US officials at the State Department, Pentagon and White House underscore that these goals are supported by a multifaceted, intensive effort by senior officials.
Giving Ukraine all the support it needs is at the heart of the West’s efforts, and coordinating these efforts will be the goal of the multinational advisory group that will meet monthly going forward.
Efforts are, of course, bolstered by the fact that Russia continues to make decisions that are not only morally reprehensible, but disastrous for its military and country.
The losses of the Russian armed forces are catastrophic. Estimates range from 15,000 to over 20,000 dead in the first two months of the war – with tens of thousands of wounded or deserters. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace estimated that these numbers represent a 25 percent reduction in Russia’s invasion-fighting capability.
Russia’s economy has been hit hard by sanctions. It is estimated that the crisis will wipe out more than a decade and a half of Russian growth. Russia’s economy ministry forecasts the economy could contract by 8.8 to 12.4 percent this year.
Senior US officials noted that Russia is suffering deep, self-inflicted wounds in other ways. Its failures on the battlefield and its clear commission of war crimes have made it increasingly difficult – even for those countries with which it has close ties or which attempted to remain neutral at the outset of this war – to garner any significant international support.
A senior US national security official said Russia’s disastrous performance to date has strained Moscow’s relations with China, India, Turkey and Israel. The official added that, as evidenced by the defeat of Russian-backed far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, those “who have been associated with Russia” have not been helped politically by Russia’s actions.
That didn’t stop Sen. Rand Paul, however, from parroting Russian talking points with Minister Blinken in Tuesday’s Senate hearings. Paul claimed that the explanation for Russia’s invasion was linked to a push by the Biden administration to admit Ukraine into NATO (a lie) and to the fact that Ukraine was “part of Russia.”
Russia this week compounded the damage done to its international reputation and its own economy by halting gas supplies to two European NATO countries – Poland and Bulgaria – because they refused to pay for energy supplies in rubles, as Moscow did required.
“Vladimir Putin started this war. He did this because world leaders have historically been too weak, gullible, or corrupted to stand against him — to deny him the chance to fuel past aggression with further brutality.”
At the same time, the Biden administration is actively working diplomatically to strengthen its ties both with its allies and with nations uncomfortable with choosing sides in the Ukraine conflict. The President, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Blinken, Secretary of State Austin and their deputies meet regularly (virtual and live) with their counterparts in the G7, NATO, the EU and the Quad (the Indo-Pacific partnership). including India, Japan, Australia and the US) and through mechanisms such as the advisory group mentioned above. Those efforts will continue over the next six weeks with a series of high-level events, including an ASEAN summit in Washington, a trip to Japan and South Korea, and a NATO summit and meetings with European leaders in Spain in June.
The US has been coordinating closely with Finland and Sweden, as well as NATO partners, to ensure these two Nordic countries can join the alliance quickly – should they ultimately choose to do so. The US is also working to improve NATO capabilities along the border with Russia.
In particular, a special initiative was taken to find areas of common interest with “new non-aligned” countries.
Those efforts were not driven by a desire to address specific countries’ decisions not to support Ukraine’s war effort, according to officials involved, but instead to focus on how the U.S. can provide assistance or address specific bilateral issues. This would not only strengthen US ties, but also help gain an advantage in an emerging era of strategic rivalry – not only with Russia but also with China.
These imperatives — cementing Russia’s defeat in Ukraine and strengthening American alliances and friendships for a coming period of potential competition and periodic tensions — supplant the largely counterterrorism-oriented US diplomatic priorities of the past two decades.
Thanks to Russia’s own mistakes and the efforts of the US and its allies, the picture for Moscow and Putin looks bleaker by the day – regardless of the final settlement of the war in Ukraine and without a shot being fired by an American or NATO soldier.
When this war is over, NATO will be bigger. Russia’s border with NATO would grow by nearly a thousand miles, and should Finland and Sweden join NATO, its position vis-à-vis the Baltic Sea and the Arctic would be significantly weakened. NATO defense investments are sure to increase, and NATO resources stationed closer to the Russian border are sure to increase. The US alone has already pledged over $4 billion in collateral to Ukraine since President Biden took office, and a major new funding initiative is expected “very soon,” according to a senior State Department official.
Russia’s economy is in tatters and its future looks bleak as Europe seeks to end its dependence on Russian energy. The temporary latecomer Germany is also picking up speed.
Ukraine will certainly emerge stronger with large pledges of aid, and accelerated EU accession is already on the horizon.
Vladimir Putin started this war. He did this because world leaders have historically been too weak, gullible, or corrupted to stand against him – to deny him the chance to augment past aggression with further brutality. Now, at last, he has encountered opposition from Ukraine to Brussels to Washington, who have pledged not to repeat past mistakes.
Your goal is as ambitious as it is worthy. But it deserves our support because it is the only path to lasting peace along Europe’s borders with Russia.