The first 50 days of his campaign in Ukraine brought unpleasant surprises for the Kremlin chief. But the war is not over yet.
Europeans are politically insignificant, divided and weak. The actions of EU member states have repeatedly confirmed this sad balance: how difficult it has often been for them to find consensus on important foreign policy issues. Vladimir Putin also considered EU countries easy adversaries. For years, he worked to pit them against each other. But now he’s colliding with the tough wall of punitive measures that the Europeans built with the Americans.
One of the lessons of the first 50 days of the war in Ukraine is that EU states can come together when it comes to the whole picture. It is certainly not a foregone conclusion that this political front will be maintained everywhere. The question of whether Russia should also be subject to a gas embargo will continue to cause disputes. This is where the strategic preparatory work on creating dependencies for Putin is paying off.
Destruction of the Russian Myth
In the first 50 days of the war, the Kremlin chief also experienced another – for him unpleasant – surprise: the Ukrainian resistance was not as easy to break as he thought. Even international experts wouldn’t bet that the Ukrainian military would hold out so well for so long. And they are amazed at how chaotically Moscow’s military planners proceeded.
Of course: Russia is a nuclear power and, after a general mobilization, it would still have a lot to offer conventionally. However, the myth nurtured by the Kremlin of unstoppable Russian armored divisions that could roll across Europe in no time was shattered. Putin has reduced his military objectives for the time being and wants to expand the territory he has conquered in eastern Ukraine. His troops – if possible – would also be capable of that. This war is not over yet.