As Ukraine’s armed forces gain momentum and urge the Russian military to withdraw from territories stolen from Ukraine during the war this year, Moscow is working to signal that some territories it took from Ukraine are on hold .
Russia’s Crimea Governor Sergei Aksyonov said on Friday that Russia is working to strengthen its defenses in Crimea, the peninsula Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014, amid mounting fears that Ukrainian authorities could overthrow its retake could take aim.
“The security of the Republic of Crimea and its residents will be ensured by measures taken on behalf of our President,” Aksyonov said. “The joint work of the authorities, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and law enforcement agencies aims to ensure that Crimea calms down.”
Despite Aksyonov’s insistence that there would be calm in Crimea, civilians in Crimea have reportedly begun to read between the lines and flee as fears mount that Ukraine is serious about retaking Crimea, Emil said Ibragimov, the head of the educational platform Q-Hub. According to Newsweek, Ibragimov told Radio NV that people are fleeing to Russia’s Krasnodar Territory to avoid any fallout.
“That means we see this trend and we can conclude that this is of course panic and fear [Ukraine] The armed forces will be able to liberate Crimea in the near future,” Ibragimov said.
Aksyonov’s attempt to craft the narrative that Crimea will hold comes at a time when Russia’s plan to take over Ukraine looks more uncertain than ever. Russian officials are increasingly questioning Russian President Vladimir Putin’s verdict and war plans. Counter-offensives by Ukrainian forces across Ukraine have forced Russia to withdraw from several pockets it had seized during the conflict earlier this year. Earlier this month, Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces out of Kherson — a key city that was Russia’s last stronghold west of the Dnieper — which Ukrainian officials see as a precursor to Crimea’s retake.
Kherson lies north of Crimea, and the defeat there spells a great loss for Putin’s dream of building a land bridge from Russia to Crimea and enabling further advances into Ukrainian territory.
The loss of Kherson also signals the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that it may be time to go after Crimea and kick Russia out, The Daily Beast has learned. The Zelenskyi government official responsible for taking back Crimea from Russia, Tamila Tasheva, told The Daily Beast in an exclusive interview earlier this month that the retaking of Kherson was a precursor to the retaking of Crimea and that the Zelenskyi government is increasingly doing the same Military in mind part of Russia’s expulsion.
“We understand that it’s really connected to the situation on the battlefield in the southern part of Ukraine – the deoccupation of Crimea – especially the deoccupation of Kherson,” Tasheva told The Daily Beast.
And while diplomacy is key to retaking Crimea, “so are we [talk] about another mechanism of de-occupation, including, of course, military components of de-occupation,” Tasheva added.
Zelenskyi said in an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday that there will be no peace until Ukraine retakes Crimea. “A simple ceasefire is not enough,” he said.
Russia has indeed turned its attention to Crimea in recent days, according to an analysis by British intelligence released on Friday.
“We have to show perseverance.”
“Following the withdrawal of its forces from the west of the Dnipro River, Russian forces continue to prioritize rearmament, reorganization and defense preparation in most sectors of Ukraine,” the intelligence analysis said. “Units have built new trench systems near the border of Crimea, as well as near the Siversky-Donets river between Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.”
The particularly limited number of stable roads and railways in this area could make it vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks, according to the Institute for the Study of War. However, according to reports, Ukrainian forces are not yet working on the east bank of the river.
The renewed attention to Crimea comes as Ukrainian forces are gaining ground across Ukraine and the Russian leadership increasingly recognizes how badly the military is looking at Ukraine and its continued military support given the poor logistics and execution of Russia’s battle plans from the start prepared from the west is days of war. Russia’s response has been a frantic attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in an apparent attempt to use what little strength remains to drain Ukraine of energy resources over the winter, analysts say.
Russia launched attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure in October, following multiple attacks on Crimean military installations. While Russian forces continue their offensives in Bakhmut, Avdiivka and south-west of Donetsk, in the last 24 hours Russia has shelled the Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Donetsk, Mykolayiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, telling the regional military administrations. Earlier this week, Russia launched nearly 100 rockets into Ukraine in what is believed to be one of its biggest attacks so far this year.
Recent Russian attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure have shut down about 50 percent of Ukraine’s energy system, said Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s prime minister. Emergency shutdowns are predicted in the coming hours and into the weekend, state-owned energy company Ukrenergo said in a statement on Friday.
The dire situation coincides with the first snowfall in Ukraine, signaling that harsher winter days are ahead. According to Politico, Ukrainian officials have begun to fear they may not be able to repair some attacks on energy infrastructure in the near future.
Poland is bracing for an influx of Ukrainian refugees as the winter months set in and Ukraine could become increasingly uninhabitable, according to local reports.
Ukrainians must be resilient in the coming days as Russia resumes its campaign, Ukrenergo warned on Friday.
“The reduction in consumption is a result of Russian rocket attacks on Ukraine’s energy system,” Ukrenergo said on Friday. “This winter we must show endurance and courage to face the enemy on the energy front.”
Shmyhal added on Friday that Ukraine imported nearly 9,000 power generators to try to ease energy supply difficulties, according to this week’s customs data.