The fact that the head of the Commission does not simply declare her candidacy in Brussels, despite being active at European level and probably wanting to stay, has to do with the complicated procedure. Von der Leyen must first be nominated by her national party.
Only then will the EPP decide in Bucharest, at the beginning of March, which will nominate von der Leyen as the main candidate for the European elections. There is no doubt that she is interested in a second term. And according to current research, the PPE also has a good chance of being authorized to head the Commission again. The fact that the CDU's policy was declared so late is due to the fact that, as President of the Commission, he wanted to remain neutral for as long as possible.
“Best candidate” principle broken in 2019
The principle that the “leading candidates” are also candidates for the presidency of the next EU Commission has existed since 2014. At that time, the EPP's main Luxembourg candidate, Jean-Claude Juncker, became President of the Commission in 2014. In 2019, the principle was immediately broken: the main candidate was the CSU politician Manfred Weber, but he did not enjoy unlimited trust.
French President Emmanuel Macron pulled von der Leyen out of the hat at an EU summit. This was very convenient for the then German Chancellor, Angela Merkel (CDU): Von der Leyen was counted as Defense Minister and at the same time was considered Merkel's competitor. With its removal, these issues were resolved.
Crisis manager with setbacks
At the head of the European Commission, von der Leyen presented herself as a crisis manager: first in the coronavirus pandemic, then in the war in Ukraine. The multibillion-dollar deal she struck with vaccine giants like Pfizer had consequences. The European Public Prosecutor's Office is investigating possible irregularities.
A centerpiece of its work to date is the “Green Deal” climate protection package, which aims to make Europe the world's first climate-neutral continent by 2050. However, under pressure from farmer and conservative protests, it reduced environmental protection and withdrew a proposed law on pesticide removal. It was only at the weekend that von der Leyen spoke about her desired second term at the security conference in Munich. In this case, she would appoint a defense commissioner, as von der Leyen suggested during a panel discussion.
If the EPP becomes the stronger force, there will likely be much less resistance to von der Leyen this time, EU diplomats say. “Rejecting a sitting president is difficult,” a diplomat told Portal. Given that unanimity is not necessary, the predictable resistance of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is already isolated in the EU, is unlikely to play a role.
Some competition is already certain
Some of Von der Leyen's competitors in the elections have already been determined. Luxembourg's EU Commissioner, Social Democrat Nicolas Schmit, will be his party family's leading candidate across the EU in the EU elections in June. Schmit's official freestyle is scheduled to take place at a party congress on March 2 in Rome.
The European Greens are once again going to the European elections with a female and male pair of top candidates. At the beginning of February, German MEP Terry Reintke and Dutch EU parliamentarian Bas Eickhout were elected at a congress in Lyon.
On March 20th, European liberals want to decide the main candidate at a congress. EU Council President Charles Michel is considered a promising candidate here. The European Left wants to decide on its main candidate in Ljubljana on the 23rd and 24th of February. The parties of the European Conservatives and Reformers (ECR) and the right-wing populist group Identity and Democracy (ID) are fundamentally against the concept of presenting top candidates at European level.