The curves for Ursula von der Leyen’s European Commission and for the German conservative herself will be steep in the final year of her term, which ends in October next year. The criticism and challenges for the first woman to head local government, who apparently specializes in crisis and emergency management, are increasing. After supporting the pandemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine – two milestones in which it has taken on previously unthinkable tasks, with the joint purchase of vaccines or financing weapons for Kiev – its position in Israel’s war against Hamas can be one What is already a very politically difficult situation is making turbulent times more difficult. This crisis and the uphill battle to increase the budget for the next period threaten to tarnish his legacy somewhat and possibly damage his political capital if he decides to seek a second term.
The German Christian Democrat, who held several positions in Angela Merkel’s government, almost suddenly took over the presidency of the European Commission, ahead of her political family partner Manfred Weber (European People’s Party), the liberal Margrethe Vestager and the Social Democrat Frans Timmermans. Her name did not dominate the first pools and she was on the lists as a high-ranking representative of EU foreign policy.
Perhaps that is why he tried to create a “Geopolitical Commission” as he promised when he took office. However, this entitlement and his desire to sidestep all issues have led to tensions within the local government and with other institutions, according to several community sources. Tensions have heightened in recent weeks over her stance towards Israel and her controversial trip to Tel Aviv following the Hamas attack on October 7, from where Von der Leyen supported Benjamin Netanyahu’s government on the day he announced the Siege of Gaza began in response to attacks by Islamist militia.
That visit, which was sharply criticized for not publicly calling on Israel to abide by international law – which it is violating with the total siege of the Gaza Strip – has, according to the EU, affected the EU’s relations with key countries in the Middle East and “damaged” in the Global South. claims. a high fountain in Brussels. Various countries accuse the Union of double standards.
Von der Leyen had made other international visits without the specific mandate of the member states that hold power in international politics, such as to Ukraine, where she has, however, skillfully expanded and sharpened her international profile and navigated between the differences of the twenty-seven, notes Rosa Balfour in an analysis for the Carnegie Center.
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The President of the Commission was also confronted with other conclusions, such as the migration pact with Tunisia, which she launched without a clear mandate from the partners and which, although it failed, she now wants to reconfirm with other countries of origin and transit – for example Egypt – to prevent the arrival of migrants in the EU. But on a topic as controversial as the Middle East, Von der Leyen’s gesture in Tel Aviv due to this invasion of power has angered many and further strained the complicated relationship with European Council President Charles Michel.
Ursula von der Leyen and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on October 13 in Tel Aviv. DPA via Europa Press (DPA via Europa Press)
“The crisis in Israel and Gaza – because we must not forget that it was the Hamas attack that triggered this episode – comes in addition to the war in Ukraine and therefore requires additional efforts from the European Commission and the EU,” noted a spokesperson for the European Commission on whether the current context complicates the final phase of Von der Leyen’s mandate. This period seems almost surrounded by crises: the end of Brexit, the pandemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine, which has shaken the European security architecture and also hit the EU through the energy crisis or inflation.
“This kind of permanent emergency favors the head of the municipal administration, who remains the favorite for a second term,” says Alberto Alemanno, Jean Monnet Professor of European Union Law and Politics at HEC Paris. “Although his unilateral and unconditional stance in support of the Netanyahu-led government’s revenge on Hamas and the Palestinians trapped in Gaza has not won the support of the majority of the twenty-seven, it has not, as such, undermined their support in the EU.”, it continues. The expert. “EU leaders, including rebel Viktor Orbán [primer ministro húngaro] and the Slovakian Robert Fico continue to support them while allowing them to act in constant defiance of the EU without finding a break,” adds Alemanno.
Areas of focus
According to a European Parliament report, the Commission has presented 69% of the announced initiatives in its six priority areas – Green Deal, Digital, Economy, International Scene, European Model of Life and Democracy. And under these crises, the recovery fund, the joint purchase of vaccines against Covid-19, the ecological transition plan (Fitfor55), the law on digital services or the reform of the electricity market were carried out. And also historical milestones such as the joint financing of arms deliveries to Ukraine. Several sources criticize that the head of the local administration has often overshadowed the substantive work of her commissioners.
Now Von der Leyen also wants to put the start of the major reforms that the EU needs before the next major enlargement on her list. Almost two months ago, in her last State of the Union address, the German gave many indications, especially in her tone, that she wanted to protect them. Recently, however, the Commission President has been losing momentum – she has toned down her green policies somewhat – and has criticized, for example, what some people perceive as being too close to the USA.
And it is still a difficult path to achieve the expansion of the European budget by the end of the year, with a possible benefit for partners of almost 100,000 million euros. A proposal from der Leyen that does not satisfy many member states that are now negotiating it. Especially in the most economical ones like Germany, the Netherlands or Denmark. Tensions are increasing. Early on Thursday morning, during a very tense debate with the Heads of State and Government of the Twenty-Seven during the European Council Summit, Chancellor Olaf Scholz ridiculed – and endorsed – the one-sided report presented to him by Von der Leyen with the new chapters of unforeseen expenditure Ukraine, immigration, the means to make the EU more competitive, support against natural disasters – according to several people in the room, it could be described as a graphic caricature.
Charles Michel, Olaf Scholz and Ursula von der Leyen at the European Council on Friday. OLIVIER HOSLET (EFE)
This means that the major budget dispute (for the period 2024-2027) is smoldering before the major reforms to accommodate the new members. Several partners, including Denmark, have accused von der Leyen of keeping the funds under the rug while demanding new disbursements for the shared budget.
The Commission notes that the budgetary review has just begun and that there is a “common awareness” of the emerging financial needs; especially the numerous simultaneous crises. “It is now important that we come to an agreement quickly,” says a spokesman for the municipal council, which is expected to have “intensive debates” in the coming weeks with the member states with the help of the Spanish EU Council Presidency, which is running this semester to negotiate, and which is now increasingly trying to finalize the new budget (with the spillover effects) before the end of the year.
“Given the successive crises: Covid, Brexit, Russian invasion of Ukraine, no part of the mandate has been easy,” says the Community Executive spokesperson. “The President and the Commission have largely learned how to deal with this situation and have shown that it is possible to find effective answers at European level,” he says. While the crises continue, Brussels has entered election campaign mode with the European elections and the fight for key positions. Von der Leyen, who has also been proposed as NATO secretary general (she is one of the US favorites), has not clarified whether she will run. “Von der Leyen is seen as strong enough to have international credibility and weak enough internally to receive virtually unanimous support,” says Alberto Alemanno.
The German conservative has many rivals and doesn’t seem to be having it easy within her own party either, where Weber has confronted her on measures such as her environmental initiatives, although he has supported her position on Israel (and her trip) in recent weeks. Partners like Austria and the Czech Republic also do this seamlessly. Von der Leyen can also count on strong rivals within her political family such as the President of the European Parliament, Maltese Roberta Metsola.
To repeat (if she finally steps forward): Von der Leyen needs the support of the Twenty-Seven. And get the support of his in-laws. So there is still a game, several sources point out. And the race until October 31, 2024 could be very long.
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