The Polish vote is a pleasant surprise, but at the same time a confirmation. The surprise comes from the fact that no one foresaw that the party, which had ruled Poland for eight years with an authoritarian and anti-democratic stance and had a clear leadership role among populist and Eurosceptic countries, would be pushed into the minority by a still-standing coalition would become the process of building.
Rather, the confirmation comes from the fact that populism becomes less attractive when a country is confronted with the concrete hypothesis of breaking away from Europe. In this case, the change is of particular importance, since Poland, due to its demographic, political and economic importance, has been the recognized leader of the Eurosceptic countries to date, and the election campaign revolved primarily around European problems, the use of force has roots in the past, but is unable to interpret today’s world and prepare its future. Suffice it to remember that Prime Minister Kaczyński’s most serious accusation during the election campaign was that Tusk was a servant of the Germans.
This at a time when a significant part of Polish development can be traced back to the close connection with Germany, both as an investor and as a recipient state of Polish production. Such a bitter conflict and the scale at stake have provoked the mobilization of the electorate in a country where the government tightly controls not only the entire state apparatus, starting with the judiciary, but almost all media. In the end, the former President of the European Council, who, from the perspective of the incumbent government, was the symbol of all evil, won. The anti-European leadership is now passing into the hands of the Hungarian leader Orbán, who, however, represents a very weak alternative, also because his closest ally, the Slovakian Fico, was forced to form the government with an allied party that does not share his anti-European policies -European.
Of course, it won’t be all sunshine and roses for the coalition that prevailed in the Polish elections. Firstly, it faces the hostility of all existing public structures, from the Governor of the Central Bank to the highest judges, from the managers of the banking sector to those of the energy sector, up to the President of the Republic who, thanks to his mandate that does not expire until 2025, has over a Has the right to veto many government decisions. In addition, the problem of harmony between the victorious parties will be no less easy to solve for the new government, since the iron (and, in my opinion, indissoluble) bond between them consists primarily of opposition to the existing government.
However, positions often differ on issues that were of considerable importance in the election campaign. The two parties supporting Tusk’s “Civic Platform” actually refer to political traditions that do not agree, since one party has liberal roots and the other inherits a left-wing bias. In addition, some issues that were very prominent in the election campaign, such as abortion regulation and agricultural policy, are still being debated and are the subject of lengthy and complex negotiations, as is always the case in coalition governments. With the complication that in this case the future opposition will be dominated by a single party and led by a leader who still has a firm grip on the key levers of power.
However, it is certain that the outcome of the Polish elections will not only have consequences within Poland, but will also have a major impact on coalition relations within our country. In fact, it is clear that after last Sunday’s vote and after the poor performance of Spanish Vox, the radical right is no longer a possible European alternative. Therefore, it becomes even more likely (or almost obvious) that the next European elections will confirm the dominance of the so-called “Ursula” coalition, based on the continued cooperation between the Popolari and the Socialists.
This is a prospect that will probably make the election easier for President Meloni, since the Hungarian leader Orbán, so far the closest ally of our main ruling party, remains increasingly isolated and certainly cannot be a reference partner for Italian politics in Brussels.
The urge to “Ursulization” is therefore becoming much stronger even within the Italian government, but is giving rise to complicated distortions between the different parties in the coalition and within the parties themselves, starting from the FdI and ending with the League of Salvini and Giorgetti.
However, we must once again recognize that national policies are, step by step, inextricably linked to European policies, which alone can ensure the relevance and existence of our beloved nations. And it is good that this necessary process moves forward as quickly as possible, even if we have to turn away from our past. Also because it is a past that has no possibility of returning.
Read the full article
on Il Messaggero