A short-lived uprising by a rebellious Russian mercenary commander ended with the withdrawal of his troops, but the extraordinary challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s two-decade rise to power could have long-term implications for his rule and war in Ukraine.
As US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Face the Nation on Sunday morning, the current situation in Russia is an “unfolding story”.
“We didn’t see the last act,” Blinken said. “We’re watching it very closely and closely, but just step back for a moment and put it in context.”
On Sunday morning, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, was due to leave for Belarus under an agreement negotiated with the Kremlin. Under the agreement, Wagner troops would be pardoned and criminal charges against Prigozhin dropped.
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Blinken told Face the Nation that he couldn’t find out where Prigozhin is currently, but said they were “following” through intelligence agencies.
Locals applaud soldiers from the Wagner Group military company as they prepare to exit an area of the Southern Military District headquarters on a street in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday, June 24, 2023. /AP
Wagner troops were seen on Sunday leaving Rostov, a key Russian military post they had taken over.
By Sunday afternoon, troops had withdrawn from the capital and people were pouring into the streets and cafes. Traffic returned to normal and roadblocks and checkpoints were removed, but Red Square remained open to visitors. On the highways leading to Moscow, emergency workers panicked to repair roads that had been torn up just hours earlier.
In a televised address on Saturday, Putin called for unity and accused Prigozhin of treason without naming him.
Putin’s image as a tough leader had already been badly damaged by the war in Ukraine, which dragged on for 16 months and claimed large numbers of Russian troops. The march of the armed forces under the command of his former protégé Prigozhin towards Moscow on Saturday revealed further weaknesses, analysts said.
It also meant some of the best forces fighting for Russia in Ukraine were withdrawn from that battlefield: Prigozhin’s own Wagner troops and Chechen troops sent to stop them.
They then advanced largely unhindered toward Moscow. Russian media reported shooting down several helicopters and a military communications plane. The Department of Defense did not comment.
They were only stopped by an agreement to send Prigozhin to neighboring Belarus, which has backed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The charges against him for instigating an armed uprising will be dropped, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, and Prigozhin ordered his troops to return to their camps.
The government also said it would not prosecute participating Wagner fighters, while those who did not participate would be offered contracts by the Department of Defense.
Although Putin previously vowed to punish those behind the armed insurgency, Peskov defended the about-face, saying Putin’s “prime goal” is to “avoid bloodshed and internal confrontations with unpredictable outcomes.”
This amnesty contrasts with the fines and jail sentences that the Russian authorities have imposed on thousands of people who have criticized the war, albeit indirectly.
And while it ended the immediate crisis, it may have started a longer-term crisis, analysts and observers said.
“For a dictatorship built on the idea of unchallenged power, that was extreme humiliation, and it’s hard to imagine the genie of doubt ever being forced back in the bottle,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies the University of St Andrews in Scotland. “So if Prigozhin could have lost in the short term, Putin is likely to be the loser in the long run.”
Blinken noted on Meet the Press that the challenge to Putin came from within.
“I think we’ve seen more cracks in the Russian facade,” he told NBC’s Meet the Press. “We have all sorts of new issues that Putin will have to grapple with in the coming weeks and months.”
Prigozhin, who sent out a series of audio and video updates during his revolt, has remained silent since the Kremlin announced the deal.
It is not clear if he is already in Belarus or if one of his Wagner troops would follow him.
Responding to questions from The Associated Press, Prigozhin’s press office said he could not answer right away, but “will answer the questions if he makes a normal connection.”
Video captured by The Associated Press in Rostov-on-Don showed people cheering Wagner troops as they pulled out. Some ran to shake hands with Prigozhin, who was driving an SUV.
The regional governor later said all troops had evacuated the city. Russian news agencies also reported that Lipetsk authorities confirmed that Wagner troops had left the region, which lies on the Rostov-Moscow road.
Moscow had prepared for the arrival of Wagner’s troops by setting up checkpoints of armored vehicles and troops on the southern outskirts of the city. About 3,000 Chechen soldiers were withdrawn from the fighting in Ukraine and transferred there early Saturday, Chechen state TV reported. Russian troops armed with machine guns set up checkpoints on the southern outskirts of Moscow. To slow the march, emergency services dug up sections of highways.
Hosts of state-controlled TV channels viewed the agreement to end the crisis as a testament to Putin’s wisdom, and broadcast footage of Wagner troops retreating from Rostov-on-Don to the relief of local residents who feared a bloody struggle for control of the city.
People there, interviewed by Channel 1, welcomed Putin’s role.
But the US-based Institute for the Study of War warned that “the Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable balance.”
The “deal is a short-term solution, not a long-term solution,” wrote the institute, which has followed the war in Ukraine from the start.
Prigozhin had called for the ouster of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom Prigozhin had long criticized for his war-waging in Ukraine.
The US had information that Prigozhin had been building up its armed forces near the border with Russia for some time. This contradicts Prigozhin’s claim that his uprising was in response to a Russian military attack on his camps in Ukraine on Friday.
When Prigozhin announced the uprising, he accused Russian forces of attacking the Wagner camps in Ukraine with rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery. He claimed that Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov ordered the attacks after a meeting with Shoigu, at which it was decided to crush the military contractor.
The Ministry of Defense denied an attack on the camps.
Congressional leaders were briefed on the Wagner buildup early last week, a person familiar with the matter said. The person was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity. The US Secret Service briefing was first reported by CNN.
One possible reason for Prigozhin’s uprising was the Russian Defense Ministry’s demand, supported by Putin, that private companies sign contracts with him by July 1. Prigozhin had refused to do so.
The Ukrainians hoped that the Russians’ internal infighting would create opportunities for their army to retake territories captured by Russian forces.
“These events will have been of great comfort to the Ukrainian government and military,” said Ben Barry, senior fellow in land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Wagner troops played a crucial role in the Ukraine War, capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut, an area where the bloodiest and longest battles have taken place.
The Kremlin’s offer of amnesty to Prigozhin was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, which may have increased his standing in his relationship with Putin.
A former convict, 62-year-old Prigozhin has long-standing ties to Putin, winning lucrative catering jobs in the Kremlin, earning him the nickname “Putin’s chef.”
Wagner has sent military contractors to Libya, Syria and several African countries, as well as Ukraine.