The Tver plane crash that claimed the lives of Russian authorities Yevgeny Prigozhin and nine other people expressed doubts about the future of the Wagner group. His stay in Belarus is a source of ambiguity and tension for Poland and the Baltic countries, which are so widespread in NATO that they even lead to the US embassy advising its compatriots to leave the country. As Lithuania closed two of the four open gates on the border with the former Soviet country today, the words of the interior minister of Poland’s conservative government, Mariusz Kaminski, caused a stir.
Kaminski said today at a press conference at his ministry after meeting his counterparts from Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia: “If there is a critical incident, be it on the Polish or Lithuanian border, we will react immediately. All border crossings will be opened as wide will be closed”. Poland shares the largest border with Belarus among NATO countries between the Bialowese Forest, the Bug River and other areas. And after ending the military presence on the border with Belarus for fear of an incident in connection with a possible hybrid exploitation of a migration crisis, he now fears Wagner provocations at the border.
For Kaminski’s migration bomb intertwined with the crisis, which could launch a surprise action by mercenaries with or without the support of President Alexander Lukashenko, and wants Belarus to defuse the threat: “We call on the Minsk authorities that the Wagner group leave the territory of Belarus immediately .” “Illegal migrants immediately leave the border area and are sent back to their home countries.” Poland has maintained high levels of concern over Minsk for some time, and the news of Prigozhin’s alleged death, confirmed by DNA testing, according to Russian authorities would have raised the prospect of military anarchy among his mercenaries. And with it the danger of an escalation at the border. Fears echoing the positions of Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas, who on a visit to the border with Belarus yesterday said he considers the “divisions that have emerged in Wagner” after the Prigozhin affair to be “destabilizing and dangerous”.
Lukashenko’s intervention, which according to Minsk estimates put the number of mercenaries present on Belarusian soil at 10,000, may also have contributed to this fear. Add to this the perceived siege climate prevailing in Poland amid ongoing discoveries of Russian espionage infiltration and internal hybrid threats. Between August 25 and 26, a cyber-attack on the national railway communications network led to disruptions to night traffic in the north-west of the country, which the Warsaw authorities attributed to Russia and Belarus: “We knew that from some.” For months there have been attempts to destabilize the Polish state. Such attempts were made by the Russian Federation in cooperation with Belarus,” Deputy Coordinator of Polish Intelligence Stanislaw Zaryn told PAP. Two people aged 24 and 29 were arrested as suspects. Warsaw fears that Wagner could act as a catalyst for such attacks. Undermining the country’s public security and support to Ukraine. An eventuality to which Poland would respond by any means necessary.