The forces of the Wagner paramilitary group gradually withdraw into Russia on Sunday after the failed coup attempt of their leader Evguéni Prigojine. This comes as part of an agreement with Vladimir Putin, who is emerging weakened from this unprecedented crisis.
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Yevgeny Prigoyine had to leave for Belarus, the Russian presidency announced on Saturday evening, without it being known on Sunday when this departure was planned under the guise of exile or where the stormy boss Wagner was staying.
During a 24-hour attack that took his militias less than 400 km from Moscow, 200 according to him, he shook the Kremlin before turning around and, mediated by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, ordering his men to return to their bases . the only European ally of the Kremlin.
In a sign the urgency of the crisis appears to have passed, local authorities said on Sunday Wagner’s fighters left the Voronezh and Lipetsk regions south of Moscow, stages in their attempt to reach the capital.
The day before, they had left the military headquarters they were occupying in Rostov (southwest), the nerve center of operations in Ukraine, signaling the end of this mutiny to avoid “a bloodbath,” according to Yevgeny Prigozhin.
However, the “anti-terrorist regime”, which grants the police extended powers, remains in force in the Russian capital and in its region on Sunday.
Large police patrols are stationed along the road leading to the Moscow exit in the south of the capital, an AFP journalist noted. Monday will be a day off in Moscow.
This is where Wagner’s men and their tanks could have arrived if they had continued their march to retrieve the heads of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, who are accused of sacrificing tens of thousands of men in vain in Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov welcomed “a solution without new casualties” to the crisis when announcing the agreement with the man who had promised a few hours earlier to “liberate the Russian people”.
The criminal case against Yevgeny Prigoyine is dropped and none of the fighters of the Wagner group, which plays a key role alongside the Russian army in Ukraine, are prosecuted, although they took up arms against the Kremlin.
“No one will persecute (the fighters) for their merits at the front,” said Ukrainian Dmitry Peskov.
The Russian authorities had never before shown such leniency, jailing opponents and anonymous critics of Vladimir Putin and his offensive against Ukraine
For an adviser to the Ukrainian Presidency, Mykhaïlo Podoliak, “Prigoyine has humiliated Putin/the state and shown that there is no longer a monopoly on the use of force”.
“The Kremlin is now faced with a deeply unstable balance (…) The Prigoyine uprising revealed serious weaknesses,” emphasizes an analysis by the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Exceptional scene on Saturday night in Rostov, dozens of residents showed their support for the insurgents and shouted “Wagner, Wagner!” just before the fighters left the city with their leader at the head of the convoy.
“The crisis of institutions and trust was not as obvious to most in Russia as it was in the West. Today it is clear,” notes Konstantin Kalachev, an independent Russian political scientist.
“The way the Rostov population supported Wagner’s departure speaks volumes,” he notes.
If the terms of the deal remain the subject of speculation, President Lukashenko, a close ally of Mr Putin, appears to have played a key role.
The Kremlin has expressed its “appreciation” to the Belarusian leader, usually in a relationship almost entirely dependent on Moscow.
Facing his greatest challenge since coming to power in late 1999, President Putin had denounced a “betrayal” of those in charge of Russia’s bases, promised “punishment” and raised the specter of a “civil war”.
The events were closely monitored by Western governments. According to the Washington Post and the New York Times, the American secret services had warned the White House of an imminent Wagner uprising in Russia.
Russian diplomacy had warned Western countries against any attempt to “exploit the situation”.
And Moscow has warned that Wagner’s failed uprising will “in no way” affect the Russian offensive in Ukraine.
A Russian airstrike on Kiev killed five people in the early hours of Saturday morning, according to a report by the mayor of the Ukrainian capital updated on Sunday.
“The myth of Putin’s unity of Russia is over. “This internal escalation is dividing the Russian military alliance,” Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told Il Messaggero newspaper.
“This is the inevitable result of supporting and funding a legion of mercenaries,” he added.
North Korea has thrown its support behind Russia, with Deputy Foreign Minister Im Chon “expressing his strong belief that the recent armed insurgency in Russia will be successfully crushed,” according to the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko in Beijing on Sunday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said, without giving further details on the talks.
While the Wagner militia has played a leading role in the conflict in Ukraine, tensions with the general staff have escalated over the months.
In particular, Yevgeny Prigoyine accused him of depriving Wagner of ammunition, insulting Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, a friend of Vladimir Putin.