The uprising by Wagner’s mercenaries has exposed obvious weaknesses in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position, analysts say, and cast doubt on his ability to deal with the dangers that threaten his political survival.
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Putin immediately sought to ward off the threat, getting Wagner’s boss Evguéni Prigojine to halt the advance of his forces and accept a deal that would result in his exile in neighboring Belarus.
However, observers believe it is too early to assess the full consequences of this revolt for the 70-year-old Putin, who has ruled Russia for 24 years after the resignation of Russia’s first post-Soviet president, Boris Yeltsin, in late 1999.
As Moscow continues its invasion of Ukraine, the mutiny has shattered the image of an all-powerful man and revealed an isolated figure busy controlling groups that are tearing apart around him.
“Putin and the state have received a serious blow that will have a significant impact on the regime,” assures Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the consulting firm R. Politik.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, whose government was clear about Prigozhin’s intentions, according to the New York Times, said the uprising “raised real questions and exposed real cracks.”
“We cannot speculate or know exactly where this will take us. “We know that Putin will have many questions to answer in the coming weeks and months,” he said on Sunday.
“Start of a process”
The deep power struggles, including the personal spat between Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, have shown that Putin is no longer comfortably at the helm of power. And his forces could not prevent Wagner from taking the Russian Army’s southern command center in Rostov-on-Don.
In the negotiations that led to Prigozhin abandoning his march on Moscow, this time Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who generally conveys the image of a subordinate partner to Putin, emerged as the savior.
Images of Prigozhin and his militants leaving Rostov as heroes have further embarrassed the Kremlin less than a year ahead of Russia’s presidential election, scheduled for March 2024, in which the president is expected to run for a new term after reforms. controversial constitutionalities.
Vladimir Putin has not yet confirmed his intentions and no eventual successor has come forward, with the exception of Tula Region Governor Alexei Dyumin, his former bodyguard, who has been named as a possible replacement for Shoigu.
For Kirill Rogov, director of the consulting firm Re:Russia, “this is not the end of the story, but the beginning.” Military uprisings, even those that have failed, are very often in history a harbinger, the beginning of a process.”
In a speech whose tone surprised many observers, Putin on Saturday compared the Wagner leader’s uprising to the “dagger in the back” of 1917, when the first tremors of the Russian Revolution toppled the Tsar and defeated Russia from World War I.
“None of this means that the regime will collapse anytime soon,” says Mark Galeotti, director of consulting firm Mayak Intelligence. But “the mutiny further undermines the capacity, strength and credibility of Putin’s state and draws closer to the day when that regime will fall.”
“Putin lost too”
The invasion of Ukraine has also prompted Russian-language media outside the country to re-examine the head of state’s health, lifestyle and decision-making, painting a picture of a sick and paranoid leader increasingly isolated since the Covid pandemic and spends little time in the Kremlin.
Several media outlets have claimed that Putin spends most of his time at a sprawling compound on Lake Lagoda near St. Petersburg, where he travels by armored train rather than plane for security reasons.
His famous pose in which he shows all his manhood shirtless, while fishing or on horseback seems to be a thing of the past.
The Kremlin has asserted that Putin was in Moscow during the weekend’s events and has always denied allegations about his health. “My conclusion is that Prigojine and Wagner lost,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at the Naval Analysis Center (CNA).
“But Putin also lost and the regime is hurt. It remains to be seen what long-term effects this will have. »