Venezuela plans referendum on territory historically disputed with Guyana (Image: Portal/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria)
A referendum is scheduled for December 3rd Venezuela That could change the geopolitical scenario South America.
The Government’s proposed consultation Nicolas Maduro will try to understand the position of the population Essequibo.
The area bounded by rivers is 159,500 km² Cuyuni It is Essequibo and whose sovereignty has been claimed by Venezuela since 1966, represents about 60% of Guyana’s current territory.
Apart from formal protests in international organizations, the Venezuelan government never took stricter measures on the claimed territory and the situation in Essequibo remained lukewarm for more than 50 years.
This changed in 2015. That year, a subsidiary of North American ExxonMobil announced the discovery of a huge oil deposit 183 km off the coast Essequibo, the socalled Stabroek block.
It is not yet known exactly what the total exploration potential of the offshore block is, which includes Equatorial marginbut more recent estimates speak of a capacity of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd).
In addition to its fossil fuel wealth, the Essequibo land region is known for its gold reserves and high hydrological potential, which is also home to part of the international Amazon region.
Since then, the government of Nicolas Maduro criticized the 1966 agreement that gave newly independent Guyana sovereignty in the region and accused the neighboring government of seizing assets belonging to Venezuela.
Now experts fear that the result of the referendum, if so, could end up legitimizing a military invasion of Guyana by Caracas.
Venezuela claims sovereignty over Essequibo and its maritime zone, where the Stabroek block was found [Imagem: Governo da Venezuela]
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The threat of military conflict on Brazil’s northern border
According to Victor Del Vecchio, a lawyer and international law specialist at the University of São Paulo, a direct war between Venezuela and Guyana would likely result in the former’s victory.
“Venezuela is a highly militarized country and a regional military power,” he assesses.
On the other hand, Del Vecchio emphasizes that a conflict of this type would inevitably entail the direct or indirect involvement of external actors with economic and geopolitical interests in the region.
The first and most obvious of these are the US. Washington has several military bases in the southern part of the continent, in countries such as Colombia, Suriname and French Guiana, a French overseas territory.
According to the expert, the decision to hold a referendum at this particular moment could be related to the perception of a “window of opportunity” within relations between Venezuela and the United States.
This is because the states are rehearsing a strategic approach with the administration Joe Biden important sanctions relaxed on the oil sector of the Latin American country to increase supply on the international market.
“The rapprochement with the USA could be in Nicolás Maduro’s calculations,” says Del Vecchio. The American government has not yet officially commented on the issue.
In The Hague, Venezuela and Guyana exchange accusations
Guyana’s government representative, Carl Greenidge, went to the International Court of Justice in The Hague to try to stop the referendum.
In his statement, Greenidge said the referendum on the Essequibo region represents an existential threat to Guyana’s territorial integrity and is a “sinister plan.”
“He seeks the creation of a new Venezuelan state that would annex and incorporate into its own territory the entire Esequiba region of Guyana, more than twothirds of its territory, and grant Venezuelan citizenship to the population,” he said.
On the other hand, Venezuelan Vice President Dalcy Rodríguez, who was also in The Hague for two days for the hearing, accused Guyana of making an “unprecedented, extraordinary, surprising and barbaric” request.
“We have come to refute the claim of Guyana’s judicial colonialism by using this court to stop what cannot be stopped: on December 3, Venezuelans will vote in our referendum,” Rodríguez said last Tuesday (14) .
Brazil’s position
So far, Itamaraty has not commented on the growing tensions in the north of the country. For Del Vecchio, Brazil is expected to act as a mediator and is interested in the geopolitical stability of the region.
A Venezuelan invasion of Guyana could impact the business environment of Brazilian companies in Guyana, particularly those operating in industries such as: Energy, mining, logistics and agriculture.
Later that year, the president of Petrobras (PETR4), JeanPaul Prates, He sees the logistics division of the stateowned company Transpetro as a potential service provider for the exploration campaign in the neighboring countries of Guyana and Suriname.
Another cause for concern is the worsening of the existing migration crisis in Venezuela. According to the UN refugee agency, more than 5.4 million people have already left the country.