As the war in Sudan continues in early 2024 despite international attempts at mediation, General Hemedti has increased his diplomatic visits in recent weeks. Building on his recent military breakthroughs, the Rapid Support Forces (FSR) chief is trying to establish himself as a credible interlocutor abroad while marginalizing his enemy, General Burhan, the regular army chief.
Nine months of war and no ceasefire in sight. The deadly conflict in Sudan between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's regular army and General Mohamed Hamdane Daglo's Rapid Support Forces, known as Hemedti, has led to the internal displacement of more than 7.5 million people, which is getting slightly worse by the day an already catastrophic humanitarian situation.
Attempts at mediation by the USA, Saudi Arabia and even Kenya have not yet led to a real ceasefire.
The conflict was at times focused on the Darfur region and the capital Khartoum and has spread to other parts of the territory in recent months, particularly in the northeast and southeast of the capital.
General Hemedti, whose troops are making progress on the ground, has launched a regional diplomatic offensive in recent weeks. The warlord is taking advantage of his recent military successes and now wants to win the battle for his image.
I was pleased to attend the 42nd Extraordinary Session of the IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government in Entebbe, Republic of Uganda, which discussed ways to end the ongoing war in Sudan.
The summit was an important opportunity for us to… pic.twitter.com/5HNxplaZ9t
– Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (@GeneralDagglo) January 18, 2024
Military breakthroughs on multiple fronts
The Regional Network for Cultural Rights sounded the alarm in mid-January, estimating that the ongoing conflict now threatens the remains of the 2,300-year-old kingdom of Kush, a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
According to the NGO, the Rapid Support Forces have carried out two attacks in the last two months on the Naqa and Musawwarat es-Sufra sites, located 170 km northeast of the capital.
If Nile State claims that the air force managed to repel the paramilitaries without causing any damage, these incursions reflect the favorable dynamics with which General Hemedti's forces operate on the ground.
According to the NGO Acled (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project), a specialist in collecting conflict-related data, rapid forces now control “almost all of Darfur’s states” in the west of the country.
In recent weeks they have also made a significant breakthrough in Al-Jazeera state, southeast of Khartoum, where they managed to capture the capital Wad Madani on December 18.
The displaced army
The capture of this megalopolis of 400,000 people, one of the country's largest cities, largely flew under the radar of media focused on the Israeli offensive in Gaza.
In Sudan, it sparked widespread criticism of the Rapid Support Forces, which are known for their brutality and are quickly accused of being involved in abuses and looting. But it is primarily the regular army that is expressing the anger. After a few days of fighting on the outskirts of the city, it withdrew without a fight and left the city.
“We will hold all negligent commanders accountable. Those responsible for this withdrawal must answer for their actions, without any leniency,” General Burhan complained, trying to save face.
But the damage is done. “The Sudanese expected that the army, despite its poor performance in the West, would be more successful in protecting their historic riverine backyard,” said a recent report by the NGO International Crisis Group. “Although it has not won a major battle, many Sudanese wonder whether it is on the verge of collapse today, although all scenarios remain possible.”
Charm offensive
On December 27, nine days after his troops' lightning victory at Wad Madani, General Hemedthi began a regional diplomatic tour. A real marathon with stages in Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, South Africa and Rwanda.
Until then, the paramilitary leader's exchanges with neighboring countries had remained confidential, and for good reason. Before the war, the general served as vice president of the interim government led by General Burhan. Its Rapid Support Forces are also accused of killing several thousand people in ethnic massacres in the Darfur region.
On January 11th, in one Long message posted on social network, General Hemedthi reported on a telephone interview with the Secretary General of the United Nations. He denounced the abuses of the army, described as a “militia,” and noted that he had revealed his “vision to end the war” to Antonio Guterres.
At the beginning of the conflict, “the two armed groups respected a certain form of chain of command. But both suffered significant losses and recruited heavily. The new fighters, and certainly some of the old ones, behave extremely badly towards the Sudanese population,” explains Roland Marchal, researcher at the Sciences-Po International Research Center. “It’s not exactly the same on both sides, but human rights violations are massive on both sides,” the region expert adds.
On the eve of a meeting dedicated to Sudan in Kampala, General Burhan announced on January 17 that his relations had been frozen with the East African regional bloc Igad (Intergovernmental Authority on Development), which was trying to bring about mediation, accusing it of “interfering” in Sudanese affairs .
A golden opportunity for General Hemedti, who immediately condemned “those who are obstructing the peace process in Sudan” and called them “traitors to the nation.”
“General Burhan previously believed that he could lay claim to the title of president of the Sudanese national government,” even though “the national army is bombing its own population,” emphasizes Roland Marchal. “Hemedti appears more and more as the victor of this confrontation; he now hopes that his military achievements of the last two months will be politically confirmed.”
During this time, “the population suffers, dies and flees from a war in their own country, without the international community seeming to grasp the crisis,” laments the researcher.
According to a largely underestimated report by the NGO Acled, around 13,000 people died during Sudan's nine-month war. On January 18, the United Nations announced the start of an investigation into war crimes in the country. In particular, this concerns the numerous allegations of rape and the recruitment of child soldiers since the conflict began on April 15th.
