In the traditional victory parade that marks the end of World War II on May 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to be able to celebrate several victories in domestic and foreign policy. To reach her, he will not pay attention.
On May 9, Russia traditionally celebrates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany with a military parade in Moscow’s Red Square. This year the celebrations are of particular importance. A summary of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin’s main goals that he intends to achieve by this symbolic date in Ukraine:
Donbass Control
After the Russian army encountered fierce resistance around Kiev, Moscow announced in late March that it was now focusing on Donbass. The mining area in the east of the country is essential for the Ukrainian economy. The Ukrainian army has been fighting there since 2014 against Moscow-backed separatists, who already control some areas. Putin’s goal now appears to be to dominate the entire region.
While there was no “mass movement” of troops to the east, “we saw that some airborne troops arrived to join forces in or around Donbass,” a senior Western official said. After the great logistical difficulties at the start of the mission, the Russian General Staff will now try to plan more carefully.
Victory Day Celebration
The military is under pressure to achieve success in Ukraine by May 9. In his speech, Putin will want to draw parallels between the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany and its declared aim to “denazify” Ukraine. “We believe that May 9 is an important date for the Kremlin”, says the representative of the Western government, warning that military measures adapted to the fulfillment of political objectives “could end in a military catastrophe”.
According to Vasily Kashin, a geopolitics expert at the Moscow School of Economics, May 9 “doesn’t matter at all.” “No one is going to time anything to coincide with a holiday.”
While the takeover of all of Donbass by May 9 seems elusive, Moscow could bet on at least taking control of the already besieged port city of Mariupol and declaring it a victory.
continuation of peace negotiations
According to experts, the Kremlin does not intend to resume serious peace talks until a military advance is achieved. The talks are “determined by the dynamics of military action,” says Kashin. The biggest point of contention is the status of Crimea and Donbass, with Russia insisting that Crimea be recognized as part of its territory and Donbass as independent. Kashin says Russia will insist on these goals. “The only question is how long it will take and how high are the losses on both sides.”
avoid the collapse of the economy
In addition to focusing on military maneuvers, Putin must also be aware of the worsening economic situation as a result of the sanctions. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on Thursday it would take “at least six months” to “restructure” the economy.
Meanwhile, the state intervened massively and fueled fears of a return to the Soviet planned economy. On Tuesday, Putin called for more agricultural equipment to be manufactured and for “clear” targets to be set to compensate for the lack of imports.
muzzle opposition
Moscow is taking even more repressive measures against members of the opposition. Thousands of protesters were arrested and independent media and social media were blocked. In a March poll by independent research institute Levada, 83% of Russians said they supported Putin’s actions. However, the high level of approval could also be due to the fact that people are afraid to express themselves honestly.
Russia is also ramping up its anti-Western rhetoric. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Wednesday accused Western media of “complicity” in the killings of civilians in the town of Bucha. Former President and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev delivered a speech this week in which he said Russia wants to “build an open Eurasia from Lisbon to Vladivostok”.