The Bakhmut symbol
A pre-war town of about 70,000 people with no fundamental strategic interest, Bakhmout has been the scene of intense fighting for months. It is the apotheosis of the war of attrition. Both sides are convinced that they are weakening the opponent and do not back down. It would be a symbolic setback for Ukraine, a major failure for Russia. “Bahmut has become an area of high attrition with increasing losses on both sides,” the American Hudson Institute noted on Wednesday.
The Russian paramilitary group Wagner demanded the capture of that city’s town hall in early April. But fighting continues and Wagner boss Evguéni Prigojine admitted during a visit to a cemetery that the latter “continued to grow”. And “even if Bakhmout falls,” the Russian army will not be able “to take control of the Donetsk region, one of its key territorial objectives,” the Hudson Institute assures.
The failed offensive
According to Léo Péria-Peigné of the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI), the Russians captured only 70 square kilometers in March. A miserable win. “The Russian army lacks trained men,” he says, “with problems in supplying artillery ammunition. We are approaching a balance between the two camps.”
In this regard, “the Russian offensive is going as badly as expected. The question is how exhausted the Russians will be and will be forced to ration ammunition,” US analyst Michael Kofman said on Twitter. According to him, Russian Army Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov “is exhausting the armed forces with untimely and ineffective offensives” that could leave them “vulnerable.”
war of attrition
For a year the war has exhausted the machines and decimated the soldiers. And in the absence of reliable figures, each camp estimates the higher enemy losses. “It benefits Russia […]. Ukraine has expended a lot of forces to keep these cities of low strategic importance,” independent military analyst Alexander Khramchikhin told Moscow. Russian losses arguably exceed “well over half of all the equipment in units or stocks to be restored” that “the country had operational” in February 2022, for their part, write Philippe Gros and Vincent Tourret in an analysis for the Foundation for Strategic Research ( FRS).
GENIA SAVILOV/AFP
“We seriously doubt that they can break into the upscale market,” said Andrei Zagorodniouk, a former Ukrainian defense minister. “We don’t think the operation is sustainable.” The fact remains that if the two camps struggle to consolidate their advances, “the Russian army likely has the resources and manpower to mount a tenacious defense” of “minefields and trenches” against the announced Ukrainian counteroffensive, notes Michael koman.
Western Aid
Kiev remains on a drip from the West in terms of intelligence, training and the supply of modern weapons. The Russian army saw the arrival of light and heavy tanks, radars, ammunition, rockets and other long-range missiles on the battlefield.
In the future, “the situation will depend on the one hand on the speed and volume of Western supplies and on the other hand on the ability of Russian anti-aircraft defense to intercept this type of weapon,” said Igor Korochencko, editor-in-chief of National Defense magazine. Supplies to Ukraine “prolong the conflict,” adds the analyst, subject to Western sanctions.
The impossible retreat
Russian President Vladimir Putin is therefore long-term and should “wage a war for resources,” says Ukrainian Andrei Zagorodniouk, admitting that the Ukrainian economy is “not recovering.” For his part, Alexander Khramchihin regrets Moscow’s ineffective decisions in the face of increasingly stronger than expected Ukrainian resistance. “The numerous military problems do not explain the mistakes in the political objectives,” he denounces.