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War in Ukraine: before “neutrality” the need for a ceasefire

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky admitted here in 2019 that Ukraine cannot...

via The Associated Press, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged here in 2019 that Ukraine cannot join NATO.

UKRAINE. This is a strong gesture as talks between Ukraine and Russia continue, more than two weeks after the start of the war. On Tuesday, March 15, President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that his country, Ukraine, cannot join NATO. Thus, he answers one of the requests of Moscow, Vladimir Putin, who refuses to allow the former Soviet republic to pass into the fold of the West.

“For years we have heard that the doors are open, but we have also heard that we cannot join. This is true, and we must admit it,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a video conference with the leaders of the countries of the United Expeditionary Force, a military coalition led by Great Britain.

On March 8, he had already “softened” his request for membership in the North Atlantic Alliance, but also said that he was ready for a “compromise” on the status of the separatist territories in the east, Luhansk and Donetsk, recognized as independent by Russia a few days before the invasion of Ukraine. It should be noted that at the same time the EU opened the door for closer ties with Kiev and its accession to the EU.

“How to design when Ukraine is under bombs?”

Is Zelensky making political concessions to the master of the Kremlin here? “No,” Carol Grimaud-Potter, professor of Russian geopolitics at the University of Montpellier, tells Huffpost. “After the president’s statement, we too hastily believed that Ukraine would not join NATO. This was taken as a signal from Russia to achieve the neutrality of Ukraine, which it had been demanding since February,” she recalls.

During the talks on Wednesday, March 16, the Russians reiterated that a compromise is “possible” on Ukraine’s neutrality, like Sweden or Austria, which remain non-aligned during conflicts, have limited military strength and, by definition, cannot join NATO. military alliance. Moments later, Ukraine announced that it strongly rejected the idea.

In any case, the chances of success of this attempt were slim, according to a specialist in Russian geopolitics, since Russia and Ukraine “jumped a step in their negotiations.” “They immediately went to the second, the negotiation, when a ceasefire was needed first,” she agrees. There will be no neutrality in a country at war: how to project yourself when Ukraine is under bombs?”

“Russia is playing for time”

Russia continues to “demilitarize Ukraine by bombing ammunition depots and military bases and denazify it, that is, carry out harsh repression against anti-Russian sentiment, such as the two kidnapped mayors in Melitopol and Dniprorudny,” in southern Ukraine. country, explains Carol Grimaud-Potter. Ukraine is actually “on fire and blood”, but the resistance of the army and its people interferes with Moscow’s plans. And neither side is yet ready to cede a single inch of land.

That is why, despite the so-called efforts of Volodymyr Zelensky, there is little progress in the negotiations between representatives of the two warring parties. “In fact, during the discussions, we did not see anything. Ukraine’s position on Russia’s demand to recognize Crimea as Russian and the independence of Donbass is unknown. The announcements are going in that direction, but we don’t know what the trade-off is.”

First of all, Karol Grimaud-Potter concludes, “Russia is playing for time and is convinced that in a few weeks there will be no more army. The capture of the capital Kyiv is necessary, it would be a turning point.” With the key to changing your diplomatic tone?

See also at The HuffPost: Gabriel Attal’s tribute to Pierre Zakszewski.