Since the beginning of the conflict, Emmanuel Macron has not wanted to break off dialogue with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
When the foreign ministers of the 30 NATO member states met in Bucharest at the end of November to reaffirm and emphasize the alliance’s support for Ukraine and the countries of the region threatened by Russia, one absence was noticeable: that of France.
The head of French diplomacy, Catherine Colonna, accompanied President Emmanuel Macron on his state visit to the United States. However, American Secretary of State Antony Blinken was present in Bucharest. For its European allies, especially the countries closest to Russia, this absence of the French minister is another reason to question France’s position on the Ukraine conflict, even if it means perceiving it as a possible weak link in Ukraine Western alliance supports Kyiv against Moscow.
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Two days after that meeting in Bucharest, Emmanuel Macron gave several interviews to French and American media in which he appeared to be delivering conflicting messages about Ukraine, adding to the desperation that was becoming more openly expressed in some Eastern European capitals. While reiterating that it is up to Ukraine to choose the timing of negotiations with Russia, the French President reiterated the need to give Moscow “security guarantees” when the moment came for these negotiations. The Russian news agency TASS circulated these statements on Twitter.
Ukraine criticized with Macron
“Damn, but that’s not true!” Responded former Estonian President Toomas Ilves on Twitter, echoing a sentiment shared by many of France’s Eastern European allies. Ukraine’s response was quick and clear. Mikhailo Podoliak, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, replied that the world needs security guarantees from Russia and not the other way around.
Emmanuel Macron’s comments have sparked anger and some concern among countries in Eastern Europe and the Baltics, despite France’s significant military and financial aid to Ukraine, diplomats and former politicians say. This French positioning also weakens Emmanuel Macron’s own political project, which aims to give Europe “strategic autonomy” by strengthening the countries of Eastern Europe in their desire to prefer the protection of the United States for their own security.
According to an Eastern European diplomat, Emmanuel Macron “misinterpreted” Russia once before, and there are now fears it will happen again. Asked by journalists about the criticism that followed his recent remarks on Russia, Emmanuel Macron replied on Tuesday, arriving at an EU-Western Balkans summit in Albania: “We must not make a big deal and try to make controversy where.” there is none.
France shows its support for Ukraine
“I’ve always said the same thing, that is, in the end, in the peace talks, there will be territorial issues about Ukraine, and they belong to Ukrainians, there will be collective security issues throughout the region,” he added. The Elysee Palace did not immediately respond to Portal inquiries on the matter.
French diplomats and representatives of the presidency of the republic stress that France has never hesitated to provide political, military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and that Emmanuel Macron has always made sure to consult Volodymyr Zelenskyy before speaking with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin .
Nevertheless, even among France’s closest western allies, a certain irritation can be felt after these declarations of “security guarantees” against Russia, whose invasion of Ukraine has claimed tens of thousands of lives, reduced cities to rubble and condemned millions of residents to cold and darkness, as winter approached.
“We never say publicly everything we think”
“In foreign policy, you never publicly say everything you think. Being right is not enough. You also have to say it at the right time, otherwise you risk getting the opposite of what you want. . Sigh,” former French ambassador to the US Gérard Araud recently wrote on Twitter, without naming Emmanuel Macron.
The recent criticism of Paris is all the more frustrating for French diplomacy as Emmanuel Macron had sought to recalibrate his embassy after provoking anger in Kyiv and other Eastern European capitals back in the spring by claiming Russia should not be “humiliated”. will. In September, the French president delivered a widely publicized speech to the United Nations General Assembly, in which he urged non-aligned countries to break their silence on Ukraine or risk serving “with some complicity in the cause of a new imperialism.”
France has also intensified its arms deliveries to Ukraine and made them better known. In a way, the balancing act Emmanuel Macron seems to be engaging in is hardly surprising. Since his first election in 2017, the President of the Republic’s foreign policy has consisted of launching initiatives and trying to shake things up. In his view, his statements in 2019 about a NATO in a state of “brain death” stimulated the debate within the alliance rather than alarmed it.
Russia ? Macron’s mistake
Emmanuel Macron rarely goes back to his earlier statements. He strives to explain, convince and prove his achievements on the international stage, say his staff, who recognize his energy, willingness to tackle complex problems and ability to seize the good times. However, a growing number of critics and allies see Russia as its biggest diplomatic blunder.
In doing so, they raise reservations about the promise of outright military defeat for Russia, whose army has been retreating to the ground since the start of a Ukrainian counter-offensive at the end of the summer. If Russia needs to be clearly defeated for the Soviet Union’s former satellite states in Eastern Europe so that it no longer poses a threat, the French President believes that a possible Russian defeat must be handled with tact and sensitivity.
This refers to a view widely held in France — but disputed elsewhere — that the heavy financial and territorial sanctions imposed on Germany at the end of World War I under the Treaty of Versailles served as a seed for resentment 20 years later. Some diplomats in Eastern Europe fear that Vladimir Putin, who sees the United States as the only real power in the Western camp, will simply use Emmanuel Macron to sow discord within NATO and exploit the slightest Franco-German division.
Putin at Versailles
A senior Russian diplomat hailed Emmanuel Macron’s vision and desire to maintain future relations between Russia and France, where others clearly want to sever all ties. From the first days of his presidency in 2017, Emmanuel Macron, anxious to resume strategic dialogue with Russia, received Vladimir Putin at the Palace of Versailles. Although the glamor of this meeting flattered the Russian President, it did not result in any significant progress.
When France was President of the Council of the European Union in the first half of this year, the President of the Republic attached great importance to keeping channels of communication open with Vladimir Putin, and again with a view to creating a possible zone security around the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, whose surroundings are frequently bombed. Again with no tangible results.
Ahead of his trip to Washington, Emmanuel Macron said he would speak to his Russian counterpart “in the coming days.” This interview has not yet officially taken place.