Ukraine has only confirmed that it is conducting “offensive actions” in certain sections of the front and remains unclear as to which operation was supplied with tanks and other Western armored vehicles, artillery or long-range missiles, and a dozen new brigades formed, about 40,000 men.
Locally, pro-Ukrainian Russian forces have been carrying out increased raids and bombings on Russian soil in the Belgorod border region for the past two weeks. In addition to these maneuvers, there have been numerous acts of sabotage and depth charges aimed at railway junctions, command centers or even Russian fuel and ammunition depots in recent weeks. A series of operations that experts say are part of a Ukrainian effort at “shaping,” an English military term meaning “modeling” of the battlefield at both a tactical and psychological level with the aim of establishing a favorable balance of power before an attack.
If a major operation is announced, one big unknown remains: the location Ukrainians will choose to try to break through Russian lines in hopes of retaking Moscow-held territories. Possible options include the Lugansk (east) region of the Donbass and the Zaporizhia region, where the capture of Melitopol, one of the Russian-held capitals in southern Ukraine, would allow Russian forces to separate from the east-south.