Almost a year after the start of the Russian military operation against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, what are the possible developments of the conflict in the coming months? The difficulty of prediction is particularly pronounced in this conflict, as there were numerous military, diplomatic and strategic “surprises”.
On the one hand, the combat readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces, the support of the EU and the United States in Kyiv, the logistical and tactical difficulties of the Russian armed forces surprised Moscow. On the other hand, the resistance of Russian business to sanctions, the scale of Ukrainian migration to Europe, the blocking of UN bodies and the measured support of China, India and several countries from Africa to Russia surprised Western law firms.
Three major scenarios are currently possible.
Scenario 1: A clear Russian setback
Militarily, Moscow’s forces would launch a new offensive on Kyiv, as in February 2022, but also on the Donbassin (the Donbass, much of which is still under Ukrainian control today) and the Kherson province in an attempt to get in the eyes of the Russian population achieve resounding success.
But these attacks would fail. Russia would lose many men and much of the four Ukrainian provinces illegally annexed to the Russian Federation in September 2022. It would find that…
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